Sunday, June 23, 2013

Inauguration: Affirmation and Rebellion

UPDATES...newest now on top
original post "Inauguration: Affirmation and Rebellion" at end


6/30, 11:15 pm
- increasing reports of violence or the beginnings of clashes in these later hours -- most, if not all, are still gathered in the streets.  Despite the later hour, many reports continue of a festive mood with chants led by women, cheers any time a military helicopter passes, and everyone smiling for cameras or taking pictures and sharing them via social networking.

- some interesting pictures have come in since the last update...
June 30, even though protests, was an event for many families

as mentioned in the sarcastic and witty story in last night's update, Tamarod encouraged people who couldn't march to just sit outside their buildings in a sign of solidarity with the marchers - we've heard of many reports of people doing just that.

a collage of various gatherings throughout Egypt -- not just a Tahrir Square event on June 30!


- and we've received some links to some interesting videos:

first, this video is from RussiaToday, and using a correspondent for Ahram Online whom we follow on Twitter - Bel Trew - she recorded this yesterday as a primer for today's demonstrations...

Trew also has an interesting article from an interview with a Freedom & Justice Party advisor which appeared in the AhramOnline website this morning.  In the interview "Brotherhood under siege: Q&A with FJP advisor Gehad El-Haddad", he states the grassroots campaign is unproven.

Secondly, from the Middle East Institute, this great little video they've titled "Tamarod: The Organization of a Rebellion" with one of the founders of the Tamarod grassroots movement that sparked the idea of mass protests for today:
The above video references the origins of the name Tamarod (from a Syrian magazine), and that the original 5 friends began posting their ideas on Facebook.  One point made by the young man is that in the absence of a Parliament who has the authority to dismiss the President, the people - who elect the Parliament - should have the right to do what Parliament can; he further emphasizes that he believes this to be a democratic solution, and that if President Morsi truly feels he has the majority of Egypt behind him, then there is nothing lost by agreeing to early elections.

- Also, let me pass along this link from the Guardian, published this morning on their website as an exclusive interview with President Morsi on the eve of the June 30 protests, "Egypt's Mohamed Morsi remains defiant as fears of civil war grow" - in this article, Morsi restates that rejecting the rule of the Constitution is a bad precedent, claiming the next leader may find crowds demanding his departure in one month or one week.  Also, interestingly, the authors say that Morsi admits that he regretted the Constitutional declaration he made last November that gave him sweeping powers.  Also, and I wonder if all the images of demonstrations around the country have changed this opinion at all, President Morsi stated in the interview that he believed the independent media had misrepresented the strength of his opponents.

- News is reporting that President Morsi is still calling for dialogue in a press conference now; previous attempts have been rejected by opposition leaders.

- We'll see how things go for the rest of the night...and in the next few days!

Thank you for your continuing interest, thoughts, and prayers for Egypt!


6/30, 8:15 pm
- no news is good news, right?  it's been a quiet, peaceful day here in Maadi.  We have been following updates via Twitter and Ahram Online at their continuous live blog - the best place we've found for updates and interviews from different participants.  Twitter followers are likely going to get dozens of RT (retweets) from us through the night as we follow several reporters & bloggers at the various demonstrations throughout Egypt.

- in the past two days, there was quite a gathering in support of President Morsi via the Freedom & Justice Party and the Islamic Alliance umbrella group.  Today, especially within the last few hours, we've seen pictures of not just a full Tahrir Square, but full gatherings all over the country--and the people are still going to these events (with no where to go)--as the sun has set and the cooler air is beginning to blow through the evening sky.  These demonstrations today have been reported by various news outlets (print and broadcast) as peaceful, cheerful, and strangely confident, despite President Morsi and other press conferences indicating that they are standing firm.

- Yesterday, the Tamarod ("rebel") petition group had announced that their drive had surpassed 22 million; a recently formed group calling themselves Tagarod (meaning, "impartiality") announced today or last night their petition drive, in support of President Morsi's legitimacy, had crossed 27 million.  Not sure about either of these numbers, but Tamarod has definitely motivated the people to the streets tonight.

- These are the pictures from Twitter in the last hour--from the small towns to largest cities:
Alexandria, near Sidi Gaber

Mansoura

Assiut


Damietta

Fayoum

Itihadeya - near Presidential Palace

Kafr el Sheikh

Mahalla

Mansoura

Menya

Presidential Palace / Heliopolis

Sidi Gaber, Alexandria

Suez

Tahrir at Sunset

Before Sunset, from Cairo Tower on Zamalek, looking toward Tahrir Square (bridge full, too)

Tahrir at prayer time

- The early hours of these gatherings were easy to secure as there were far fewer people - but now, securing mobs of people pressed together are going to be a difficult problem.  We are beginning to see news and Twitter reports that violence is happening either between or to protestors in various locations. Ahram Online, in their live feed, just posted this update at 8:00:
20:00 There are reports of deadly violence in Beni Suef in Upper Egypt.
Ibrahim Hodeib, chief of security in Beni Suef, said that one protester was killed and 30 injured following an attack by unknown assailants, in a phone interview with private satellite channel CBC.
Journalist Shaimaa Mafhouz tells Ahram Online that a thousand-strong anti-Morsi rally in El-Modereya Square, the main square in Muslim Brotherhood stronghold Beni Suef, was fired at.
"A number of assailants, accused by protesters of being Islamist supporters of Morsi, attacked the rally...Some clusters of protesters scattered and hid inside the mosques surrounding the square; at the same time the armed forces mobilised to contain the situation. Assailants continued briefly to fire at the mosques where protesters were hiding but they ran away when the army arrived," Mahfouz said.
The Beni Suef office of the Egyptian Popular Current, a leftist group led by opposition leader Hamdeen Sabbahi, claimed in a statement that 30 members of “the jihadist movement” in Beni Suef were the ones who fired at the protest and that several protesters were injured.
Mahfouz told Ahram Online she saw a child injured with a bullet to the shoulder.
Hodeib told Ahram Arabic news website that one suspect behind the violence is Al-Gamaa Al-Islamiya leader in the city named Ahmed Youssef.
Ahram Arabic reporter in Beni Suef Emad Abouzeid says the assailants fired birdshot at the protest, although others said that the assailants used live ammunition.

- Unconfirmed Twitter reports have violence beginning in Cairo - we are surely entering into the critical hours now as darkness falls with millions in the streets expecting something to happen, a President intent to hold his ground, and an uncertain evening ahead...
PRAY FOR EGYPT!


6/29, 10:00 pm
- pretty much a quiet day - the calm before the storm?  we'll see soon enough.  Some headlines worth sharing:
  • Last night saw a lot of fireworks as well as the sound of gunfire - there was at least 1 reported death due to gunfire - and there was an explosion in Port Said last night that was originally attributed to a firework and a butane tank.  The blast near an anti-Morsi rally killed one and injured several others.  Today, several articles report "Egypt protest device was due to explosive device" - a handmade grenade according to this article.
  • Tomorrow's protestors are not just anti-Morsi, they're also anti-his-adminstration, as this article elaborates that "artists" will be continuing their sit-in and vocal disapproval of the rhetoric and restrictions of the recently appointed Ministry of Culture, Alaa Abdel-Aziz - "Artists to bring their touch to 30 June protests"
  • Egypt Independent, "Anonymous gunmen asasinnate a police officer in North Sinai" - there was a similar attack by masked gunmen, also using automatic weapons, that resulted in a police officer's death at a similar checkpoint a few weeks ago.  The title seems to imply that he may have been targeted, but not sure if he was just in the wrong place, wrong time.
  • finally, we'll end with this video summary from CNN...



6/29, 8:30 am
- It's Saturday morning - sun is shining, birds are singing, and it's all calm here in Maadi.  Last night, throughout the country, however, was a different story.  We did go to worship at the Maadi Community Church, an international gathering worshipped, and prayed along themes from Isaiah 19.  We came back, had dinner, and I continued to follow the updates of the Ahram Online website.  If you want a play-by-play of yesterday's events, complete with interviews and pictures of both sides of the protest, check out this link for hours 12:00-18:00, and then this link for hours 18:01-24:25.

- My apologies to friends and family who saw their local and national affiliate news stations give soundbites of the events, many of which included a statement of "an American killed" with little to no further explanation.  We saw the tweets and reports, we were waiting for confirmation on a name as the reports were different each time.  This morning, we followed a series of tweets to this article from Kenyon College, located in Gambier, Ohio, with the headline, "Kenyon Student Killed in Egypt" - the article names the young man as Andrew Pochter, 21, from Maryland.  The article goes on to say that he was serving in an internship with AMIDEAST, a non profit working with international education and training in the region.  Unconfirmed Tweet reports said that he was in the midst of the Alexandria protests, taking pictures when he was stabbed.

- That sad event was not the only account of foreigners/expats being attacked during the demonstrations yesterday.  The afternoon/evening updates from Ahram Online included this account...
23:40 A foreign woman was beaten up and dragged for several metres in Tahrir Square after a group of protesters were enraged when they saw her taking photos and shooting videos, according to Ahram Arabic.
According to the report, the woman was asked to leave because she was a foreigner. She was supported by other protesters who argued that she had the right to stay.
A heated verbal argument soon developed into a scuffle, which saw the woman attacked, sustaining several injuries as a result.
The group of protesters who were supporting the woman escorted her towards the Egyptian Museum in the north of the square to protect her from the assaults.
- While some carried posters of a large red "X" over the face of President Morsi, some did the same with US Ambassador Anne Paterson in the gatherings.

- US State Department through the Embassy issued a statement that said that travel to Egypt is discouraged; further, nonessential travel within Egypt is discouraged.

- Also, Ahram Online correspondent Bel Trew reported that a number of protestors were carrying signs against television broadcasters and personalities -- these form some of the most interesting updates yesterday through Ahram Online...
17:25 Ahram Online's Bel Trew observes a lot of anger towards opposition TV presenters at the pro-Morsi rally, with many protesters carrying posters highlighting which voices they want silenced. President Morsi has been criticised for the number of court cases brought against TV presenters, bloggers and journalists for "insulting the president" during his first year in office.
Pro-Morsi protester Emad Abel Mahmoud, 32, from Assiut, says:
"These so-called commentators or TV personalities are trying to bring Egypt down, they are clearly working for the US. Look at Bassem Youssef, he's touting a Zionist American agenda, making TV programmes for the US.
"There is a big difference between freedom of speech and being disrespectful and saying ugly words, bringing gay guests onto his show and showing people's underwear. They are insulting our dignity and religion, making fun of us. So on my poster I have CBC's Lamees and Amr Adeeb, as well a Youssef."
-...I find these particularly interesting partly because of several Tweet reports we were seeing for days about threatening letters to the various news / broadcast offices in Egypt:
  • The Daily News Egypt had this story "ONTV among TV channels receiving warning of closure" on their website this morning - the report confirms that this particular private channel received a letter from the Egyptian Ministry in charge of private broadcasting networks that they risked closure if they continued to cross lines of "insulting or offending".  
  • This also occurs in the aftermath of President Morsi's speech on Wednesday when he included CBC network owner Mohamed el-Amin of tax evasion; since that speech, el-Amin has been banned from travel pending an investigation, and el-Amin is planning his own lawsuit against the President for his statements on Wednesday.  According to this last linked article from Egypt Independent, the President said in his speech, "There are honest businessmen in Egypt and there are [on the other hand] Mohamed al-Amin, who owes taxes and whose channel harasses us and Ahmed Bahgat who owes banks LE3 billion and whose channel also harasses us. Nobody will escape justice."  ( El-Amin's CBC network is the parent network of the wildly-popular Bassem Youssef show that has received international acclaim over the past several months, as well as received a lot of negative attention from several Islamist groups.)  
  • Ahmed Bahgat, also accused in President Morsi's speech on Wednesday, is a businessman who owns the Dream TV network in Egypt - that network did not receive a letter of warning but were shut down by Egyptian government on Thursday, according to this Egypt Independent article, "Dream TV says decision to cut transmission politicized" - the article says that not all of their programming was cut, in particular, 3 sports shows will continue to air.  The article also explains that the halting of their broadcast was because a previous minister's exception to the location of the broadcasts had been cancelled (apparently, there is a singular location from which all media must be broadcast and Dream TV had been operating through an exception by the government ministry).  Dream TV representatives are referenced in the article as stating this represented a political move by the government to silence the opposition voice.

- Protestors dwindled from reportedly "hundreds of thousands" of pro-Morsi supporters in Tahrir after midnight; similarly, the anti-Morsi groups that numbered reportedly in "tens of thousands" also dwindled.  There were people setting up tents in a few areas that are expected to see gatherings in the coming days--though, not sure how much organized events will happen today, and the disorganization for Saturday could see either extreme or being more calm or more violent.  The reports seemed to indicate one location of pro-Morsi demonstration (Tahrir Square), whereas it seemed there were more than a dozen different locations throughout Egypt that anti-Morsi opinions were demonstrating - wherever there was a gathering, there were the other opinion also gathered, which led to arguments, clashes, and violent outbursts.

VIDEO of yesterday's Pro and Anti demonstrators - both videos from Ahram Online YouTube channel - note, white subtitles can be difficult to read...




- Tomorrow's events are the "main event" - June 30 has been the buildup all along, and all that we have seen has merely been the opening acts.



6/28, 2:45 pm
- It's Friday afternoon; prayers and services at Mosques have ended and marches to larger squares like Tahrir are underway by mostly pro-President-Morsi demonstrators.  Twitter is relatively quiet right now; we will retweet any interesting statements as they come in through the weekend.
this picture appears in the Ahram Online updates with this,
12:20  A large stage has been set up
in front of the mosque's main gate
by the Legitimacy Support Alliance,
a newly-formed umbrella group
encompassing 11 Islamic parties.
The Alliance is tasked with
coordinating the protests
and the planned sit-in.

(Photo: Ahmed Abdel-Rasoul)
 

- Ahram Online is running a updated blog through this link, "Live Updates: Egypt braces for Cairo rallies in support of President Morsi".  The Ahram Online article restates that today's demonstration by pro-Morsi supporters is under the theme of "legitimacy is a red line", and their updates began at 12:00 pm local time, and this is the first update that came in at 12:10 explaining that theme:
12:10  Starting in Cairo, FJP Spokesman Nader Omran told Ahram Online's Bel Trew why they are protesting today: "We're gathering on Friday to send this message: protest all you want in a peaceful way, gather if you want to convince people that the president hasn't done enough or hasn't done anything at all but step over legitimacy and that really is a red line.  We want to send this message and to show that the majority is with the president.  The people who chose the president have the right to protect their choice. They want to keep their president, to have him for four years, to give him the full chance to apply his vision.  If some people are not pleased with his performance, they can go to polling stations and they can change it."  
Sadly, the opposition apparently not content to wait their turn according to this Ahram Online update:
13:50 Opposition supporters are on their way to Cairo's Tahrir Square. Hundreds have joined marches from Mostafa Mahmoud Square, Sayeda Zeinab, Al-Azhar Mosque and Shubra. The marches were called for by the 30 June Front. Similar protests are expected to take place in other governorates as well. The main opposition marches are planned for Sunday, the anniversary of President Morsi's innauguration.
Obviously, if there are "anti" marches colliding with "pro" marches in the same location (Tahrir Square), there could be trouble...
...this Ahram Online article/updating blog may be the best source of info for English readers/speakers right now.  We will keep monitoring it and pass along any interesting developments via this blog...

- Meanwhile it's largely pro-Morsi demonstrations today in Cairo, Alexandria is apparently beginning June 30 anti-Morsi demonstrations early according to this Egypt Independent article, "Thousands rally against Morsy in Alexandria" - the article is quite brief, but mentions plans to end at the Sidi-Gaber area, which is where the first Alexandria train station is located--by the way, I was supposed to travel by train to Alex' on Monday, but not sure whether that will still happen or not!  One of the Church of God congregations is not too far from there.

- Northern Egypt continues to see a greater frequency and level of violence in their clashes already, as this Egypt Independent article now reports, "Health Ministry: 3 dead after Delta clashes" - these have been continuing off and on since the first event and death at Mansoura (see first mention at 6/26 8:30 pm update below) - this last reported death was due to a gunshot wound through the face; he was 40 years old.  The 2nd death was of a 22 year old student.

- The violence and demonstrations are not just a result of political demonstrations and frustrations; Egypt's current economic and supply frustrations have led to other violent expressions.  This Egypt Independent article reports "Angry motorist sets Kafr al-Sheikh gas station alight" - apparently, the man set the fire after waiting through a line that stretched several kilometers; the attendants were able to put the fire out, and the man who set the fire was the only one injured.





6/27, 11:30 pm
- As the Freedom and Justice Party announce their Friday afternoon demonstration plans, a weekend of protests and possible violence seem all but a foregone conclusion.  Ahram Online's article "Cairo's Nasr City to host pro-Morsi rallies on Friday" begins with wondering if June 30 will turn into weeks of such protests.

- Meanwhile, the rejection of President Morsi's speech and strengthening resolve for June 30 continues to get publicized, as in Al Jazeera English's article, "Egypt opposition calls for early elections"

- and Egypt Independent labels "30 June: a crisis at the doorstep" with an excellent, balanced report of the entrenched positions from both political sides whose stalemate may become a street battle

- but this evening's best read is a set of cautionary tales in another balanced piece of writing that urges cooperation rather than condemnation, resolution before revolution.  Ceylan Ozbudak, writing for AlArabiya, says, "Egypt, be careful what you wish for".  Using the US revolutionary start, and slow/difficult start down democracy (an illustration we have often used in talking with people about Egypt's future--difficult with our "instant gratification" mentalities), the author writes:
"If the various opposition factions in your nation cannot come together, put aside differences, and agree on the principles of the vision they see for a future society, compromise, and compose such a document [referencing the Declaration of Independence that preceded revolution] themselves, then your nation simply isn't ready for a revolution. If you cannot agree on something, you should not overthrow anything. If you have no shared vision for the future, then you have no future. You're not going to create freedom and democracy. You're going to create more instability and thus will be doomed to failure."


6/27, 6:00 pm
- Still quiet around the area; I find myself listening closely to helicopters and passing planes to see if they are military or not--is that paranoia or preparation?

- Meanwhile, protestors are beginning to prepare and take their places for planned demonstrations this weekend in scenes similar to January 2011 revolution as Ahram Online reports, "Tents return to Cairo's Tahrir Square"

- Another article on responses to President Morsi's speech last night; the Daily News story carries this headline, "Morsi's speech a lightening rod for opposition"...

- While another reporter, Bassem Sabry, goes beyond reviewing the speech to now asking, "Can June 30 End Well for Egypt?"  This is by far the best of all articles that I've read thus far on the current and projected situation in Egypt.  This is now the pressing question, because June 30 is nearly upon us and we're all wondering what will July 1 (and the near future) hold?

- And now, the Daily News Egypt reports that the FJP (Freedom and Justice Party, political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood) have announced they will "start demonstrations tomorrow", that is, Friday, June 28.  The article quotes Gehad El-Haddad, a Muslim Brotherhood leader in charge of the Nahda [Renaissance] Project throughout the article, though "other FJP" officials are also referenced.  el-Haddad repeatedly spoke against the opposition for their lack of willingness to participate in the democratic process and that the organizers & participants of the Tamarod protests have to take responsibility for all their participants.  

(Thoughts: yes, each side should be responsible for the actions of their participants, but the masses will be hard to identify who is with who if melee ensues!  And, I understand the expressed MB grievance about participating in the democratic process--but, I am an outside observer and it is difficult for me to assess or comment on how the overtures of participation and dialogue have been received.  Again, these little bits of commentary are not intended to take sides in this--this blog and post seeks to pass along information and news links to interested supporters who are watching with interest in our own well-being and that of those we serve.)

6/27, 3:00 pm
- We made a run to the store today; we've been trying to keep all possible food items well-stocked because we don't know when it may be difficult to get to the store.  Summer afternoons are not a usually busy time to be at the store, but today, the store was full of people -- most were lined up at the meat counter.  The butchers were busy attempting to keep meat in the display and to meeting the orders.  I heard several people talking enthusiastically, mostly in Arabic so I didn't understand, except for an occasional mention of "Morsi" to which everyone would look up to see who was saying what.  While the butchers kept pulling meat from the back, I noticed they were also bringing out eggs, which were all but missing from the shelves, too.

- An article appears in the Daily News Egypt chronicling "Tahrir masses react to Morsi's speech", referencing the scene of 1000+ who gathered in the square to listen together and to begin their sit-in demonstration.  The article mentions that the Ultras (a football/soccer related fan base) were in attendance and leading various chants.  The article did not have many, if any, favorable responses from those interviewed.

- An article in the Egypt Independent entitled, "Opposition deems Morsy speech 'disappointing'", quotes leaders in three rival groups: National Salvation Front, liberal Wafd Party, and the Ghad al-Thawra Party.  Neither of these representatives had very many positive statements quoted in the article.

- In updating the Mansoura clash that occurred ahead of the President's speech, the Daily News also reported in additional clashes brewing in their article, "One death in Mansoura, more clashes in Zagazig" - the update to the Mansoura clash still had no indication of blame for the start of the event that left one man dead, but added that the Freedom and Justice Party and others who gathered for briefly for a show of support of President Morsi after afternoon prayers found themselves cornered in a Mosque after the clashes began; police were able to help free them from the crowds identified as Tamarod supporters outside.

The article went on to report on clashes that occurred apparently after the President's speech last night.  A man quoted in the article stated that he was participating in a sit-in demonstration outside the governate building until continually provoked by "Muslim Brotherhood" and the resulting clashes.  Dozens were reportedly injured.

The article closes with quotes of a statement by Freedom and Justice Party official who stated that the death and clashes in Mansoura were the work of "professional thugs hired by corrupt figures of the National Democratic Party" and further references the "upcoming battle".

- With clashes already happening, the brewing tensions, and the military's previous announcement that they would not allow the country to go down in chaos, it shouldn't be surprising to see pictures like the one hear that appeared from a friend on Facebook yesterday.  The Egypt Independent article "Army deployed across Egypt for 30 June" reports, "Different sources told Al-Masry Al-Youm earlier this month that deployment plans are aimed at protecting vital institutions, public facilities, foreign embassies and strategic points including entrances to governorates."



6/27, 10:30 am
- President Morsi spoke last night, beginning at 9:30 pm local time, and continuing for 2 hours and 38 minutes.  I followed tweets through the speech of quotes and commentary.  My favorite tweet was retweeted several times before it got to me said something like, President Morsi's plan for staying in office appears to be continuing this speech for the next 3 years!  The responses/commentaries of various tweeters were not positive, mostly upset with the naming of individuals in a derogatory or humiliating way--several felt that this was finger-pointing rather than explaining the mistakes President Morsi said he himself had made.

- This Ahram Online article, "Morsi addresses nation, accuses former regime figures of destabilizing Egypt", does the best job in summarizing a very long speech, at least as far as the 7 action points that President Morsi wanted to leave with the people...
  1. commissioning Ministry of Interior to create a special task force to combat "thuggery" and terrorism
  2. formation of a committee to examine proposed amendments to the constitution from all opposition groups
  3.  formation of a "national reconciliation committee" from different political and religious factions to promote national dialogue and bridge differences
  4.  authorizing government officials to fire any individuals responsible for creating shortages or crises
  5.  to withdraw the license of any gas station found to be hoarding fuel
  6.  charging the supply ministry to make sure that gas stations were operating within the interests of the public
  7.  ordered government ministers and governors to hire "youth" (under age 40) as advisors in order to give youth a greater role in the country. 
- The response after the speech were chants of "leave, leave" in Tahrir Square according to tweets of local news reports; Al Jazeera's newscast this morning showed images of the Muslim Brotherhood's offices in President Morsi's hometown being ransacked after the speech.

- In searching for news stories related to the speech last night and/or reaction, I came across these good
image appears in Hendawi's AP story linked here,
with this photo credit and caption:
(AP Photo/Manu Brabo).
An Egyptian street vendor holds red cards
reading in Arabic,"leave - enough already,"
as a message to President Mohammed Morsi,
near the Ministry of Culture in Cairo, Egypt,
Wednesday, June 26, 2013.

we have seen similar banners around Maadi, Cairo
articles on the nature or arguments of the opposition:
  • The Associated Press' Hamza Hendawi, AP's Cairo bureau chief, writes a lengthy summary article of all these events and arguments that we have attempted to share here on the blog "At center of Egypt protest: Morsi's legitimacy"
  • And, this NewStatesman article, "A make or break moment for Egypt's President Morsi" goes into further detail of Tamarod ("rebel") campaign arguments and stated objectives, including an updated number to the ongoing signature campaign--reportedly now over 18 million.

- We will wait and see what unfolds in the next 24-48 hours as demonstrations are expected to pick up - both for and against President Morsi.



6/26, 8:30 pm
- The US Embassy has warned their citizens that rival political groups could take to the streets tonight to "express their political views" and that this could lead to violence.  US citizens are of course warned to be vigilant and to avoid public gatherings.

- This may be wise counsel as it appears that they have already begun to gather and get violent in Mansoura according to this Ahram Online article "One dead, scores injured...".  Mansoura is in the Nile delta; apparently, the clashes happened outside of a Mosque after afternoon prayers--no indication how it started.  The Ahram Online article states, "According to reports on state television, birdshot, bladed weapons and petrol bombs have been used in the violence."

- Meanwhile, there is a reported leak of content of President Morsi's speech, according to this Al Arabiya report "Mursi speech leak..." - they report that President Morsi will point blame at former Mubarak regime members who are attempting to undermine his leadership, that he had offered leadership roles to prominent National Salvation Front leaders, and continues to be denied the opportunity to talk with these leaders.  Further, the article stipulates, that President Morsie will refuse to step down and will refuse to hold early elections.

- Two articles relating to the Tamarod (transliteration of Arabic word for "rebellion") campaign appear in the Daily News Egypt tonight:
  1. First, "Tamarod maintains its campaign is legal" - an article quoting legal representatives of the group that say their rights to collect signatures and express a different opinion are guaranteed under the new constitution.  The article further states that the organizers will not back down from their goal of early elections, and closes with statements that citizens are encouraged to gather tonight to hear the President's speech and then "respond accordingly."
  2. Secondly, "Tamarod launches 30 June front" - quotes a member of the group who says demonstrations will begin Wednesday and continue until the "regime is toppled".  The article also provides the "roadmap" of what Tamarod would like to see transpire if that is successful, a plan that a representative said has consensus among all the opposition groups: "The Front offered a roadmap for the phase which follows the hypothetical removal of President Mohamed Morsi. The roadmap involves choosing a prime minister from the national figures to take over the presidential powers and form a cabinet of national, efficient ministers. The cabinet’s top mission would be to devise a plan to “salvage” the economy and achieve economic justice. 
The Front’s roadmap would also see the delegation of the Supreme Constitutional Court (SCC) chairman as president; his role would be honorary as the Prime Minister would have the executive powers. As for the state’s internal and external security, it would be left to the National Defence Council to handle.
The 2012 constitution would be stalled and the current Shura Council would be dissolved, the Front’s roadmap dictated. Instead, a constituent assembly comprised of constitutional and legal experts would be formed to draft a new constitution and to temporarily take over the legislative authority.
The transitional period outlined in the roadmap is due to expire within six months, to be followed by presidential elections held with full judicial monitoring. After electing a president, the people would then move to parliamentary elections."



6/26, 3:45 pm
- From Ahram Online report "Egypt's opposition spurn invitation to Morsi's speech" - the article quotes a National Salvation Front (an umbrella group of various parties opposing Muslim Brotherhood) spokesperson as saying, "The only way out is that the [president] accepts to hold early presidential polls."  And lists possible points the President may make tonight.

- during a quick drive through town today, the gas station where we were able fill up after a brief wait on Monday was barricaded indicating a lack of fuel -- the nearest station to them had a line down the street, a full lot, and a lot of potential patrons arguing with each other.



6/26, 9:00 am
- A lot of early stories this morning on the building tensions regarding fuel shortages:
  1. Reuter's Report "Egyptian city on edge before anti-Mursi protests" - article quotes a few citizens and their frustrations, but also quotes a Freedom and Justice Party (political party of the Muslim Brotherhood) representative on the fuel and other national issues as saying, "It's all a conspiracy to create crisis".  Similar statements are found in different quotes and various articles, all referencing some sort of concerted effort by opposition groups to undermine goods and services to create frustration and environments of unrest ahead of their planned June 30 demonstrations.
  2. Ahram Online has several fuel related stories on their site this morning:
    This picture appears in the second bulleted Ahram Online
    story with this caption, "
    Drivers wait alongside 
    their vehicles in long queues at a gas station 
    during a fuel shortage in the country, 
    in Alexandria June 24, 2013 (Photo: Reuters)"
  • "Egypt officials attribute fuel shortage to hoarding, smuggling" - this article reports on statements made by Petroleum Minister Sherif Haddara that contradict quotes of him by  Turkish news agency Anadolu that said that Egypt's strategic reserves of fuel would run out by the end of the month. The report also references a statement from the Presidency that blames fuel shortage on illegal smuggling of fuel, citing statistics, and upon the decreased foreign currency to pay current fuel debts estimated at $5.4 billion.
- Ahram Online also provides a written report and this video of the signature drive of the Tamarod campaign at the Metro stations (public train/subway transportation):


- There will likely be news anticipating and responding to President Morsi's planned address to the nation tonight



6/25, 9:30 am
- The Alliance of Islamic Parties (political parties including Muslim Brotherhood) have announced their plans to rally again on Friday, June 28 ahead of the planned "Tamarod" demonstrations -- this was expected by many.  Though this too is intended to be a nonviolent event, it will likely only escalate tensions during a very busy weekend, and their plans say this is to be open-ended and that there will be events that lead up to this.  The theme of this demonstration (not sure when demonstrations started getting themes, but it has been a useful development) is "legitimacy is a red line" - referring to the Tamarod's campaign to challenge the legitimacy of President Morsi, and borrowing what is a term usually reserved for the "last straw" of diplomacy before measures of force.

- Dr. Mohamed Fouad writes for the Daily News an article entitled, "Morsi and the erosion of legitimacy" and the dangerous precedent that could be set by the Tamarod campaign.

- Mahmoud Selem, aka on Twitter and in blogosphere as SandMonkey, writes for the Daily News an article entitled, "All the roads lead to this" referencing what he believes are three possible scenarios through the June 30 Tamarod demonstrations.



6/25, 4:30 pm
- Arrests have been made in the Shi'a murder investigation (referenced above in the 6/23 update).  Two articles with more information and commentary have been released:

  1. from Alarabiya english, "Egypt Shiite killing puts sectarian strife on political radar" - the article quotes a Shiite leader saying, "All of Egypt’s Shiites will now participate in the June 30 protests."
  2. from from Ahram Online english, "Egypt's Islamists under fire over Shia mob killings"


6/25, 12:30 am
- the Shi'a Muslim attack is still a bit of a mystery; Shi'a Muslims are about 1% of the population according to the Daily News Story - far less than the Christian population that is estimated conservatively between 6-9%

- we had planned to go to the beach for a couple of days before all the protests; we were delayed considerably just trying to get fuel.  After a couple of gas stations without fuel, and after passing several with long lines operating a few pumps, we were finally able to fill up with just a 15 minute wait--but we had to backtrack all the way near our home to do that, so we decided better to stay behind.  The Daily News Egypt shares this story about fuel shortages in Egypt; basically Egypt owes a $5 Billion fuel bill to various suppliers, and their supply opportunities are dwindling due to economy.  It may have been wise to come home because the US Embassy encouraged citizens to not travel too far away from their residences in the next few days.  Found this video tweeted from a young Egyptian on the morning of June 22 - recorded on Monday, June 24 along the desert road from Alexandria to Sinai.
We live in an area with a lot of diplomats and Embassy personnel, oil representatives, etc, and our wait was only around 15 minutes--the outlying areas of Egypt are seeing longer lines and the growing frustration represented at the end of the video.

- US embassy warning also indicated that Tamarod supporters will also be soliciting signatures for their petition at key Metro (public train/subway transportation) this week.  Though this is intended to be a non-confrontational effort, they may be confronted and arguments and even clashes could ensue; therefore, travel along the Metro lines is discouraged.

- an independent NGO listed 9,427 various types of protests against President Morsi in his first year--and we haven't even finished the year yet, with perhaps the biggest protests to come on the anniversary.  There are a lot of statements continuing to be made about the Military's desire to maintain a legitimate government, the opposition is still seeking signatures over the next few days, the Islamist alliance is still making plans to meet ahead of the opposition demonstrations, and the President's leadership is making statements about focusing on Parliament elections or the need for dialogue to correctly hear grievances.

- "defeated" Presidential candidate Shafiq has acquired new information and submitted it for a ruling from the Presidential Elections Commission on the validity of the election that led to President Morsi's defeat of the former Mubarak-era government official. Meanwhile, legal challenges to President Morsi's legitimacy as President have also been raised relating to his escape from prison during the January 25, 2011 revolution; this article says he cannot be tried for crimes because that is a responsibility of the lower house (Parliament), which has been dissolved for months.

- President Mohammed Morsi is apparently scheduled to make an important speech on Wednesday--we'll see what statements he makes and how the press responds.


6/23, 10:30 pm
- via Al Jazeera English "Egypt Army vows to step in to prevent unrest"
- via Daily News Egypt El Baradei calls for President Morsi's resignation ahead of protests -- *this story also reports that the Tamarod group says they've collected more than 15 million signatures on their petition for the resignation of President Morsi, which would be more than the number of votes he received in the election last year.
- Also, news of a group of Shi'a Muslims attacked by an angry mob near Cairo - leads to a reported four deaths.  Still trying to read articles/tweets to understand how this is or isn't related to the political unrest.


6/23, 11:00 am - original post
June 30, 2012 - Egypt held the inauguration of their first democratically elected President, Mohamed Morsi.

June 30, 2013 - and the days leading up to and after that date - has seen a deepening division on whether or not to affirm or rebel against that inauguration.

The above picture appears in the  Daily News story
(linked in this post) with this caption:
"Thousands of President Morsi’s supporters
demonstrated on Friday
 in anticipation of upcoming opposition protests
(Photo by Mohamed Omar/DNE)"
This past Friday, June 21, tens of thousands of demonstrators gathered in key locations, many bussed in from outlying governates, in support of President Morsi.  We had read reports of such demonstrations being planned until June 30, but we've not seen any additional news of such.
See news link: Islamist Rally for President's Legitimacy from Daily News Egypt  

Saturday, June 22, opposition groups under the name of "Tamarod", which is the English-transliteration of the Arabic for "Rebellion", held a press conference to outline their plans for demonstrations leading up to and after June 30.  These plans have been building and rumored for quite sometime, with banners hung and fliers being circulated to encourage participation in "anti" demonstrations.
See news link: Egypt's June 30 Coalition Publish roadmap for June 30 anti-Mursi rallies

The Friday, June 21 "pro" demonstrations were themed a "day without violence"; and from what we were able to read the demonstration mostly lived up to that theme, a part from unconfirmed reports of an exchange of rock throwing between demonstrators and a group of boys, and a local satellite new crew being "attacked".

Will June 30 protests experience a lack of violence?  We will wait and see, but the rising tension, the inflammatory rhetoric, and the past history of violence during demonstrations does not bode well.  Each announcement from the Tamarod group seems to prompt a new plan of demonstration or disruption from supporters of the Presidency.

The summary goal of the Tamarod group has been to gain "early Presidential elections," and they claim to have gathered more than a million signatures on a petition for such*.  On the contrary, Presidency supporters say that the winner of the election should be allowed to finish his term as scheduled.

President Morsi has reportedly stated that he is reaching out to opposition leaders with hopes of dialogue and cooperation; we have not found any accounts of such dialogues taking place.

As news occurs over the next week, we will attempt to post updates and news-links to this post.  You can also find retweets of stories via our Twitter account.

Thank you for your interest and support - PRAY FOR EGYPT in the coming weeks...














Monday, June 17, 2013

Recent Egypt Headlines

Egypt has made some international headlines in the last couple of weeks, but we are keeping a closer eye on what local news has to say as we move into hotter summer months and the approaching Ramadan, a holy month of fasting by Muslims, which is estimated to begin on July 9 and continue until August 9 this year.

As we look at these headlines, let us just stress a couple of things: First, we're not experts on the events, culture, politics, and history of Egypt or this region--NOR do we pretend to be.  We are simply passing along news and information that we are hearing and reading from various sources as we live and serve as guests in this region.  Secondly, we are not taking any sides in the stories that we reference; we work really hard at trying to find both sides of any story and though our initial opinions of various stories can range from humorous or even horrifying, we are not attempting to promote any opinion, perspective, or course of action.  We are here to serve regardless of the headlines and where cultural, societal, political and/or religious decisions lead.  We report these things here because there are people who want to know about what we're doing and what's happening--the news they hear regarding Egypt may be brief at best, and so, from time to time, we share more links to help those who want to know more.

With that said, here's what we're reading and seeing this week...

Egypt and Ethiopia
As previously referenced on the blog, Egypt and Ethiopia have a difference of opinion when it comes to a prospective Ethiopian dam project on the Blue Nile and the potential effects upon Egypt.  A couple of weeks ago, June 3, President Morsi convened a meeting with top government officials to discuss options relating to the potential water "crisis"; some of the participants were not aware that the meeting was not only being recorded, but also televised.  Though we have heard many speculate that televising of this meeting was accidental, the Daily News Egypt reports that the decision to televise due to the importance to the public was made prior to the meeting--but the participants were unfortunately not informed.  As a result, the discussions seemed to be inappropriate and embarrassing; the Daily News summarized some of the discussion as follows, "During the meeting Ayman Nour as well as Al-Wasat Party Chairman Abu Elela Mady suggested military action against Ethiopia; others talked about using actors and sports figures to negotiate while Al-Azhar representative Sheikh Hassan Al-Shafei suggested embarrassing Ethiopia through international pressure."

Last week, President Morsi issued a public and deliberate statement regarding the Ethiopian dam project.  According to this Al Jazeera English report, President Morsi said, "If it loses one drop, our blood is the alternative," and, "We are not calling for war, but we will not allow, at all, threats against our water security ...all options are open."

As a result of the private and public statements, you would expect Ethiopia to have a response, and they did.  In this Al Jazeera English article, the foreign ministry spoekesman Dina Mufti said that Ethiopia was "not intimidated by Egypt's psychological warfare and won't halt the dam's construction, even for seconds."  The article also includes this summary video report on the dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia...



Meanwhile, 
Egypt & Syria

In April, President Morsi visited Russia talked with President Putin.  There were talks about potential Russian investment in Egypt and Putin's requests for Russian tourists to be safe on visits to Egypt destinations; during the talks, Syria was also discussed and President Morsi stood with President Putin in agreeing against foreign intervention and the search for diplomatic solutions.  

But on Saturday, June 14, President Morsi seemed to take a different stance on Syria, urging other nations to maintain a no-fly-zone over Syria; he further announced the closing the Egyptian embassy in Damascus and the Syrian embassy in Egypt.  The Daily News Egypt further reported that President Morsi called for the "liberation of the Syrian population."

This appears to some to be a contradiction and led to headlines like this, "Morsi cuts Syria ties to woo West, boost image"on the Global Post website.  The Daily News Egypt reported on differing views on Morsi's speech, including this quote...
And what does Syria think about President Mori's speech?  Well, they're not happy according to this Al Jazeera English article that quoted a Syrian government official as saying, ""Syria is confident that this decision does not represent the will of the Egyptian people."


The various opinions on Syria are not the only opinions making headlines when it comes to Egypt.
Economy and Approval Ratings
A very balanced report from Al Jazeera English titled, Analysis: Egypt's Faltering Economy, begins this way*:
A Pew survey of Egyptian public opinion released in May found out that a solid 66 percent of Egyptians preferred democracy to any other form of government, and 51 percent were willing to live under a democratic government even if they risk instability.

Yet, when asked if they preferred "strong democracy over a strong economy", their loyalties shifted. Only 45 percent agreed, while 52 percent said that living in a good economy was more important to them to living in a good democracy.

The same survey highlighted Egyptians' growing economic pains and worries. Only 29 percent of those surveyed said they expected their economic situation to improve next year, a result down from 50 percent in 2002. Some 42 percent thought their economic situation would worsen next year, up from 20 percent last year. And, a strong 76 percent majority believed the national economic situation was "bad". 
The above referenced article quotes some favorable analysis of President Morsi's financial leadership in the past year...
"Reem Abd ElHaliem, a professor of economics at Cairo University, told Al Jazeera that Morsi should be given credit for what he achieved economically in the past year. 

She believes that Morsi has worked hard to look for alternative sources of funding, such as issuing Sukuks, or Islamic bonds, which were recently approved by parliament. She also commended Morsi for seeking to cut fuel subsidies without hurting the lower classes. A new card distribution system is under development and may be introduced this autumn. Morsi also resisted pressure to cut spending on social programmes that benefit the poor."
And, it quotes some less than favorable analysis...
"Mohammed Mossallem, an economic researcher at Cairo based Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights, thinks Morsi has not done much to help the Egyptian economy. He says Morsi has changed three finance ministers in one year, does not seem to have a clear economic policy, and has focused too much on borrowing from abroad and on attracting foreign investments - without preparing the country or the economy for absorbing such investments into pro-growth activities. 

Mossallem thinks government should take more ownership of the economy at this moment, be more transparent with people about the dire economic situation, direct more funding to productive sectors instead of subsidies, and to focus on developing small and medium size enterprises - which employ an estimated 75 percent of Egypt's labour force - offering them more funding, instead of following Mubarak-era policies to attract large foreign businesses." 
Beyond the economic opinions, there are other factors contributing to different opinion polls* on the Egyptian government.  The Daily News Egypt ran this headline today "Morsi's popularity declining," citing a 4% decline in support over the last month according to "Egyptian Centre for Public Opinion Research."

*(on a side note, personally, I think that opinion polls can be equally helpful and dangerous for democratic governments; while they can reveal what the majority think, all of the information may be in the hands of the minority -- and, I'm always reminded of the infamous statistical adage, "Statistics don't lie, but liars use statistics."  So, I'm cautious when reading or reporting on "opinion polls"!)


and finally,
June 30 Approaches
We've been hearing and reading small reports of planned demonstrations for Sunday, June 30; this date
a few of the top search results from earlier today
will be the one year anniversary of President Morsi taking the oath as the President of Egypt.  At the beginning of the month, we first heard someone speaking of the date as a day of possible protests and demonstrations; this led to a curious internet search to see if we could find any official plans.  At that time, we could only find one article referencing the "April 6" political activist group calling for demonstrations on that day, implying a dissatisfaction with the last year; the same article indicated that the Muslim Brotherhood would also be holding demonstrations that weekend in support of President Morsi's leadership in his first year.  It is difficult to find the reference to that article now, because a Google search of the words "June 30 Egypt demonstrations" leads to a host of headlines and reports (see pic).

The scarce references and rumors have become more main stream since the beginning of the month.  One of the above referenced Al Jazeera English articles above reported the following as a part of President Morsi's statements on Syria:
We have heard from expats and Egyptians alike, and there seems to be a little more anxiety over the various plans for the last day of the month than in previous times of demonstration.  Since the 30th is a Sunday, and since a lot of demonstrations have typically began after Friday prayers, some wonder if demonstrations have the potential to be several days.

And that's your headlines...

Pray for Egypt!