What's Next for Egypt?

One of many great pictures at this Al Jazeera "controversy in pictures"
with informative captions (this pic by Mosaab Elshamy).

"What's Next?"

That's the question lingering in the air today as the second round of voting begins to complete the 2-stage process to ratify a controversial Constitution that has left the country divided since it's rushed approval by the Constituent Assembly at the end of November.

The Constitution draft is likely to pass today.  Despite what some are expecting low voter turnout in the voting governates slated for today, the margin of victory by some estimates will the same as the unofficial results of the previous round last Saturday, which was 57% in favor of the Constitution.

The opposition forces, mostly coalesced into a group known now as the National Salvation Front, have been vocal in their mass demonstrations since President Morsi took sweeping powers that allowed the Constituent Assembly to rush their draft through in 1 final 20 hour session.  Yet, those vocal and passionate demonstrations did not find their way to the ballot boxes; the "unity" of the NSF divided on whether to vote "no" or to boycott the referendum--even with all of the opposition voting "no", it would likely have been a very close vote.

Now, the opposition seems to be losing steam.  Formerly passionate and vocal young revolutionaries who tweeted and posted through social networking sites of their determination to see this "regime" toppled like the former one (Mubarak), now seem pessimistic and resigned in their tweets and posts.  Some used the Mayan end of the world prophecies as a joke, stating "the Mayan's predicted the world would end on Dec. 21; the 2nd vote on the Constitution is on the 22nd--coincidence of divine mercy?"

Some of the revolutionary voices have wondered out loud whether they would continue to protest, or  continue to seek hope in political process, or would they just move.

Some in the west are asking, "Why didn't more Egyptians show up at the polls and vote 'no'?"

In the minds of the opposition, the vote on this Constitution draft should never have taken place--not like this.  President Morsi interrupted the anticipated dissolution of a controversial Constituent Assembly that had seen Christian and secular voices resigning from their minority opinions under protest of marginalization by the Islamist parties--when President Morsi put his authority over the courts, the Constituent Assembly returned to work and quickly voted through a draft that many people had been publicly debating and finding fault with for weeks.

The draft, in the eyes of many, seemed to large--at times repetitive, and at other times contradictory.  There was much that was carried over from the previous Constitution, and new elements that raised a lot of questions.

The Constituent Assembly rushed this draft through without external debate on these issues; after the first round of voting and an unofficial clear lead in the ballot box, the Constituent Assembly invited opposition leaders for debate on the draft on Friday (one day before the concluding vote).  This was not met favorably by the opposition leaders, nor by opponents of the Constitution.  Many expressed the thought, "What's the point of debate on the draft now?"

Many opposition voices had been calling for debates while still in the drafting process.  Prior to the Constituent Assembly's final meeting and the President's declaration that gave himself sweeping powers, many opposing voices asked for an open process of debate and eventual ratification on the draft, including:

• debates on various articles--a process that would have required a review period longer than the 15 day minimum from presentation to referendum that was implemented;
• multiple referendums so that the Constitution would be approved in pieces and not as a whole entity to discover where problem issues were within the proposal; and,
• approval by two-thirds or three-fourths rather than simple majority to ensure consensus in a diverse society.

All these and more were simply good ideas that were never given the chance.  

The minority voices in the Constituent Assembly felt their opinions were marginalized in the same way--and that's why many of them resigned even before President Morsi's declaration.  Several of the President Morsi's own staff and advisors felt they were not given the opportunity to comment or contribute to his decision making process that led to his "power grab", and so they resigned in the wake  of that decision.  Egyptian diplomats in embassies around the globe originally protested overseeing the expat voting due to the division and violence back home and did not want to be a party to increase such division.  

But the referendum was not altered and continued to push forward, through last Saturday and into today.

Protests have become increasingly violent and tense this past week--this after forensic reports indicated that live ammunition killed some of the demonstrators on December 5 when pro-Mori/pro-Constitution supporters burst through the sit-in at the Presidential Palace.  Security forces were necessary to separate demonstrators in Alexandria, as seen in this video clip:

According to this report, fighting even broke out in one mosque during Friday's sermon.

So then, violence have spread from isolated clashes amidst demonstrations and into places of worship.  What's Next?

What's Next when the Constitution is passed in the ballot box today and still opposed on the streets tomorrow?

What's Next when the new Constitution is attempted to be implemented from the Presidency to the Parliament to the Police to the People?

What's Next for Egypt?

We'll be here to see and report, as well as to serve those here as we have opportunity.  Thanks for your continued thoughts, interest and prayers...