Monday, July 9, 2012

Wanna Party? Power Plays & the Rise of Third Current

Last Month, the Supreme Constitutional Court was busy, handing our verdicts regarding Mubarak and other leaders roles in the deaths of around 850 lives during the Revolution in 2011--this infuriated the revolutionary groups who wanted the death penalty for the ailing octogenarian.  Then, the SCC also ruled that the Parliament was improperly elected and should thereby be dissolved.

The next day, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) dissolved the Parliament and took over legislative powers until the Constituent Assembly could finish a new Constitution (goal of September) and then hold new Parliamentary elections (goal of 2 months later).  This decision was made during the Runoff Presidential Election and caused uprising demanding power to be returned to civilian hands and the new President, calling the actions of SCAF a "soft political coup".  SCAF, and several legal/constitution experts, maintained they were merely looking out for the country's best interests while respecting the unappealable rule of the SCC. 

 On Sunday, July 8, newly elected President Morsy calls Parliament back to session, overriding the ruling of the SCC and putting him at odds with the leadership of SCAF.  Morsy has yet to name a Prime Minister or most of his cabinet as he faces pressures and rejections from several political forces, including his former Muslim Brotherhood relationship (renounced after winning the election).  The MB has been pressuring Morsy to name their first choice for President (al-Shater) to be his Prime Minister.

Today, the SCC has called for an emergency session to review Morsy's move.  Egyptian Nobel Prize winner Mohammed ElBaradei tweeted, "The executive decision to overrule the Constitutional Court is turning Egypt from a government of law into a government of men."  According to this CNN report, retired General Sameh Seif Al Yazal (who now heads the Cairo-based "Republican Center for Political Research") called Morsy's decision, "an insult to the hegemony of the judicial system in Egypt...this decision puts the judicial system in crisis...the President is a role model.  How are the Egyptian people going to respect any court rulings after that?"

Never a dull moment, and never a shortage of opinions in Egypt's political scene these days!

While the military (who largely represent former patterns and means of leadership) wrestle with the new political force in Egypt (the Islamist groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood), the development of any new democracy such seems to be caught in the middle of the power play.  The MB, a part from the former National Democratic Party of which Mubarak represented and has since been burned out (literally), is the oldest and most organized political force in the country.  They clearly had the pole position in the race for power after the revolution, and that led them with "underdog" Morsy straight to the Presidential Palaces.  Meanwhile, SCAF has demonstrated that they are clearly reluctant to relinquish power to Islamist, although civilian, hands and have sought to "legally" undermine the Presidential Powers until a new and improved Constitution could be created.

This tug of war has created ambivalence among the people and the revolutionaries, perhaps best summarized by Ahramonline writer Samer Soliman, "Egypt is currently reeling from the outcome of the presidential race, exhausted, confused and with blurred vision. This is accompanied by deep frustration among half of the population who opted for Ahmed Shafiq, or reluctantly voted for Mohamed Morsi, or voided their ballot or boycotted the entire process altogether."

Keep in mind that just over half of the eligible voters participated in a runoff that was basically decided by about 26% of the eligible voters choosing Morsy.  While half the population wants either the Islamist  or the former military rule, the majority of the population wants a third choice.

In American politics, the desire for a third political party is nearly as old as the country itself.  Republicans versus Democrats has been the dominant system, but there have been moments in history where other parties sought to offer another solution.  The outcry for something other than elephants and donkeys seems to be growing louder with campaigns such as Free State project (move to New Hampshire and join the Libertarians), and the newly launched Americans Elect project.  So it is not surprising to see the growing desire and efforts of the Egyptians in their new democratic pursuits to seek a third alternative.

Coptics recently formed a "Christian Brotherhood" party with similar goals of the Muslim Brotherhood -- with 10% Christian population in Egypt, this is not likely to capture the majority vote any time soon--and exchanging one religiously-based political group for another is not what the majority seem to be seeking.

Other political parties have been established since the Egyptian Revolution, including: Karama Party, Constitution Party, Democratic Alliance, Free Egyptians, Al Wafd, and the Egyptian Social Democratic Party.  Now these former rival parties that split the vote during the recent Presidential elections have been discussing a merger that would create what they are already calling the "Third Current", as a third path as opposed to the military or Islamist agendas.

The supporters and leading figures of such a merger include former Presidential Candidates Sabbahi and Mousa, as well as vocal and secular Parliamentary leaders such as Amr Hamzawy and Mostapha El-Guindy.

Sabbahi says, as reported by the Egypt Independent, the Third Current would not be a new political party, but a movement to unite and pursue the demands of the 25 January revolution.  He is further quoted as saying, "We want a society that loves religion and the military, but refuses control by the military or religious parties."

Hamzawy, as quoted in AlArabiya, said, "We in the Third Current want to protect Egypt's right to a constitution that uphold personal freedoms, the rule of law and the division of power, the right to fair elections and government institutions not dominated by one party or ideology."

Such rhetoric makes good press, but raises many questions for every answer the Third Current hopes to bring:

Can such a Third Current exist and work together merely as a collaboration and partnership of various political parties?

Which of the "alpha males" will become "top dog" with the loudest "bark" when it comes to formulating policy and agenda?

Which groups will subsequently jump ship to try to maintain their own ideals and pursuits?

As Sameer Soliman astutely writes, "It is not enough to agree on principles.  Those who seek a 'third current' in Egyptian politics have to innovate with new methods of management and organization."

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