Defusing or Fueling Controversy

UPDATES below
Before we move forward to current events, let's review:

• President Morsi made a decree last week that gave him unprecedented powers that would be above judicial correction in a country without a Parliament or Constitution.  He stressed that these powers were temporary to safeguard the goals of the 2011 Revolution that toppled Hosni Mubarak; he and the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party have repeatedly said that these powers exist only until a new Constitution is in place.  

• The same decree prevented the apparent dissolution of the second Constitution Assembly and gave the group additional time to finish the project.  The Constitution draft had been widely scrutinized as lacking real clarity on key issues, and was hotly debated due to retaining the 2nd Article's wording that based Egyptian law on the "principles of Sharia" rather than the Islamist groups desires of simply "Sharia" based law.  In recent weeks, the Constituent Assembly had witnessed all the Christian and a majority of the moderate/liberal representatives resigning nearly daily in protest of being disregarded by Islamic representatives; President Morsi spokesperson countered in a statement saying that the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafi Nour parties are not the majority of the assembly, and that the "resignations" were merely "power plays" as many had not yet filed the official papers removing themselves from the Assembly.  

• President Mori's supporters praised this "bold move" and were thrilled that they were going to finally have the power to remove the remnants of the former regime from current government positions, as well as to retry those former government officials (including Mubarak) who some say got off too lightly.  Such power above Judicial oversight, and the ability to retry people who have already had their day in court, drew much criticism and objection from half the judges in the country who are protesting in a variety of ways; a meeting between Morsi and the lead Judiciary members led to no compromise.

Not Happy Campers:
Anti-Morsi protestors in Tahrir on Tuesday night--
groups continue to gather and demonstrate,
hoping to exceed this number on Friday.
(photo by Hossam Fadl as used on EgyptIndependent)

• President Morsi and his supporters may have underestimated the number who would disagree with this Presidential decree.  Opposition groups, including former Parliamentarians, Judeges and most of the former Presidential candidates, have united in calling for the repeal of this decree; formerly these groups were divided by religious, civic, and social goals--now they're all united in the call for a repeal of this power.  Some violent opposition groups took to fighting security forces, storming Muslim Brotherhood offices, and causing clashes with Morsi supporters.  More peaceful demonstrations numbered in 10's of thousands a few nights ago, filling Tahrir Square.  The opposition demonstrators continue in the streets and squares and are attempting to maintain momentum to a Friday gathering.

• Meanwhile, President Morsi and the Freedom and Justice Party have continued to stress that they will not repeal this decision, claiming (despite the numbers of protestors) that the majority of Egyptians are on their side.

(For related news stories to the above summary of events, see the previous blog post "Peace for You, Protests for Us")

Now, this is what's happening in the past 24 hours (November 28-29, 2012)...

The small story: Death Penalty...
New Prosecutor General, also a result of the Presidential decree, moved quickly to obtain the "death penalty" for the 7 Coptic Christians living abroad who are alleged to have links in financially supporting the film "Innocence of Muslims"--the same poorly made film whose YouTube trailer sparked anti-American protests throughout the Middle East.  Of course, the decision would only be applied if any of the individuals returned to Egypt.

The bigger story: New Constitution Draft Soon?
Perhaps in an effort not to prevent President Morsi from having to repeal the controversial decree, the remaining Constituent Assembly members (maybe 55 of 100) say they will not need the additional 2 months of time given by the decree and will finalize the Constitution for a vote as early as today.  In this CNN Article...

• In a Time Magazine interview, President Morsi said, "My chief responsibility is to maintain the national ship to go through this transitional period...What I can see now is, the Egyptians are free," he said. "They are raising their voices when they are opposing the president and when they are opposing what's going on. And this is very important. It's their right to express and to raise their voices and express their feelings and attitudes. But it's my responsibility. I see things more than they do." (emphasis mine)

• Quoting from the CNN article, "Sameh Ashour, head of the lawyers' syndicate and a former member of the council, said that only 55 of the 100 original members of the assembly remained, and all of them were from Islamist movements such as the Salafists or the Muslim Brotherhood, Morsy's political movement.  'The Muslim Brotherhood are stealing the constitution,' he said. 'They are tailoring it according to their view after Coptic church representatives, civil movements, and revolutionary representatives withdrew.'"

• Is this move to speed up the Constitution an effort to help President Morsi "save face", and prevent the first freely elected leader from looking weak?  A couple of the analysts interviewed by CNN think it's a possibility. Aly Hassan, a judicial analyst affiliated with the Ministry of Justice, said "This could be a way for him to get out of this debacle without reversing his decree and decisions."  AND, H.A. Hellyer, analyst of Brookings Institution, said "I think his advisers are figuring out a way where he can climb down a little bit to defuse the situation without coming across as weak."

What a new Constitution Draft means...
If passed by the Constituent Assembly, the Constitution Draft would be placed before the Egyptian populace for review and then vote within 15 days.

There are several issues (see article 1, article 2, article 3, and article 4 for starters) that could further embolden the opposition against President Morsi and the Freedom and Justice Party's efforts to push this Constitution through; however, the issue with the greatest divisive potential is within Article 2's wording regarding the basis of Egyptian law upon the "principles of Sharia".

Currently the demonstrations are against a perceived abuse of power--if the wording of Article 2 is changed to simply "Sharia" (especially after all the resignations of Christian and moderate/liberal representatives), the demonstrations and protests may become a religious divide that would pit Islamists like supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafi's Nour Party against moderate-Muslim, Christian, and secular voices.

If, however, the wording is not changed to simply "Sharia", the backlash upon the Muslim Brotherhood and President Morsi by the Salafi's Nour Party and other fundamental Islamist groups could be similarly intense.  These groups were angered by the failure to change Article 2 when they witnessed the first draft, released on October 10; these groups took to demonstrations that sparked media and community debates on the course of democracy in the new Egypt.  President Morsi's largest support base in his run-off election win was within the Islamist movements, including the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafi supporters; losing the support base of the Islamists who want Sharia in addition to all the current opposition groups would be a huge political blow to the embattled President.

In either case, if a Constitution Draft is passed within the next few days, the following 15-day period leading up to the vote on a new Constitution is likely to be a particularly tense time.


Thank you for your continued interest and support -- PRAY for Egypt...

UPDATES--4:00 pm local time...

Constituent Assembly has begun approving the 234 articles, one article at a time:
-- 85 members of the 100 are present*
-- Article 2 passed with "principles of Sharia"
-- Article 3, stating "Christians and Jews may resort to their own religions on issues of personal status", passed
-- if the draft is fully approved today as many expect, it will be submitted for review by President Morsi on Saturday, and he will announce the date for the public's vote

*Quorum for this session was not a problem, as 67 (2/3) were necessary for voting
*Some previously "resigned" members apparently returned for the voting session, but the Orthodox Church "definitively withdrew" their representatives

In an article on the organized opposition from formerly divided groups, this disturbing warning was reported:

The Popular Current issued a statement Tuesday calling for maintaining peaceful protests. The statement held Morsy responsible for the violence that occurred, and warned that if it continued, Egypt could fall into a “civil war.”

In another article on the Constituent Assembly's Voting today, the following interesting comments are quoted:

1. “This is an exit. After the referendum, all previous constitutional decrees, including March 2011’s decree and the current one that created all this political fuss, will fall automatically after 15 days,” Muslim Brotherhood spokesman Mahmoud Ghozlan told Reuters.
2. “The secular forces and the church and the judges are not happy with the constitution, the journalists are not happy, so I think this will increase tensions in the country,” said Mustapha Kamal Al-Sayyid, a professor of political science at Cairo University.   “I don’t know how the referendum can be organized if the judges are upset,” he added.

A new CNN video/interview asks a President Morsi spokesperson whether or not this Constitution approval has been too quick:



Strikes and demonstrations continue in several major squares as we head into Egypt's weekend; the demonstrations were near enough to the US Embassy that it cautioned its citizens not to come in today, though stressing that the demonstrations were not against the US Embassy, just near to its gates.  

These demonstrations are likely to continue into the night and into what will likely be a busy demonstration day in downtown Cairo and other cities throughout Egypt.  As the opposition demonstrations continue, the Muslim Brotherhood and other groups have called for their own "million man march" to demonstrate support of President Morsi's recent declaration.  Obviously, large groups of demonstrators representing opposing ideals is not a recipe for a peaceful day.

Thanks again for your continued interest and prayers...