UPDATES on top
(original story below)
July 13, 4:00pm
- Yesterday was a busy day, full of ups and downs, and I was unable to post any updates. Really, there's not been much to update. Protestors who support either ousted-President Morsi, or "democratic legitimacy" continue to gather and demand Morsi's reinstatement -- the gatherings have been peaceful, though the lasting nature of this peace seems uncertain: for example, the Muslim Brotherhood's "youth" program (younger members) offered to stop violence if Morsi and other leaders would be released by the government. That's an interesting press conference from a group that has been advocating "peaceful protest".
- oh, and the anti-Morsi, or the support of sudden-change-in-government, group continue to meet in Tahrir Square to celebrate change. This was also a peaceful gathering with the participants breaking the dawn-til-dawn fast together in the Square.
- Local reporters and international correspondents here in Cairo have made a couple of interesting observations or commentary:
- Finally, on a personal note, we're still here in Cairo. We thought we could work out our on-again-off-again vacation plans to the south Sinai peninsula - but those plans fell through once again. So, we'll continue to keep ourselves as busy and sane as humanly possible. Unfortunately, our ministry opportunities continue to be interrupted due to road closures (either by military or demonstrations), uncertainty of demonstrations near meeting places, and other concerns. This has made the "slow" summer slower. I was able to fulfill a commitment as a guest speaker for the St. Andrews United Church of Cairo this past Friday morning, which was nice. I hope that we see things return to a normal schedule in the near future...
July 11, 6:00pm
- A couple follow-up stories that relate to previous updates...
- We're still safe and good; Grace and Titus had a kids program practice (helping out with the local international church this summer), and the rest of us worked out or swam at the school. It was nice to get out today because we will likely be stuck inside watching the news and twitter feeds tomorrow as demonstrations are set to take place.
July 11, 9:00am
- Good morning from sunny Cairo! The news is slowing down, but the waiting seems to lag on and on. Waiting for what? We have no idea--there's just this sense that something may happen, and you just keep living in anticipation of the "what if's". Add to that the decline in our own activity--partly because we haven't been able to have weekly worship with the CCF, but most is just the routine of less to do in the summer. We wanted to go see more throughout the city or Egypt this summer--but, we can't because of security concerns (again, the "what if's"). Sadly, we've come to the conclusion that we shouldn't go to south Sinai this Saturday where we were scheduled to vacation for a week. Because we travel by multiple squares on our way to or from activities in Maadi, we have to be careful to not be out too late when gatherings may begin. It's a bit like house-arrest :(
- Good financial news continued for Egypt yesterday: Kuwait pledged their own $4 billion; $1 billion loan, $1 billion in oil products, and $2 billion deposit in the central bank of Egypt. This is in addition to the $8 billion from Saudi Arabia and the UAE--that's $12 billion in 36 hours for the new interim government! On a side note--if there are any other Middle Eastern nations looking for a bank account to deposit a billion--or million or a few hundred thousand--just call!
- Though demonstrations and sit-ins returned to the Presidential Palace area last night, At this point, we're waiting on Friday as there is yet another "million man" protest march planned by the pro-Morsi/legitimacy groups. Both of these are in part to further express their displeasure with the "coup" and interim government, and in part to protest the military's "killing of demonstrators" last Monday morning. Each demonstration seems to be filled with thousands who are peacefully gathering to express their displeasure of their vote's power being stripped--this is understandable frustration that nearly anyone in democratic system can appreciate; however, there has also been questionable rhetoric in interviews among the demonstrators and even from the speeches on the stages that border on inciting violence. This is in part the argument for the arrest warrants issued for several leading Muslim Brotherhood leaders in the past two days. If these leaders show up to the demonstrations to make a speech, will anyone attempt to arrest them before or after their appearing?
- Is the debate (on the "official" US position on whether or not the situation in Egypt is a "coup") ending? Last night, a report based on statements made by Jen Psaki, State Department spokeswoman, circulated among various reporters we follow on Twitter -- they wondered in the twittersphere if this was the beginning indication of the US supporting the interim government. In the report, when Psaki was asked about the democratically elected President of Egypt, she said, "It wasn't a democratic rule. That's the point."
- Meanwhile, though both groups throw around a lot of anti-American rhetoric, participants in both
groups have attempted to use posters and other means to convey their love of the American people and America in general. Like this poster, there seems to be an effort, at least by some, to separate a disapproval of President Obama and his administration, and approval of Americans. Despite these signs and similar statements, there are many demonstrators who are still not distinguishing between the two; the US Embassy in Cairo remains closed today as occasional demonstrations take place outside the gates. There have been reports by some Americans of not being well-received among the crowds, which is precisely why the Embassy continually warns its citizens to stay out of areas where demonstrations are (or may) taking place. Heeding the State Department's warning, several international companies have sent their American and other international families out of Egypt -- some have even made the decision to relocate them to other countries -- we know this because our children have heard from friends who will not be returning as planned in August for the start of school.
- While we continue to wait and see, we maintain a high level of concern for the Christians we are here to serve. We continue to get reports from national church leaders that the pastors and church members throughout the country have been safe, but they are concerned about the activities around them. According to this AP report, there is reason for concern for Christians in Egypt during this controversial interim period. If things get increasingly worse in Egypt, we may be removed for a time--but those we serve would be left here to deal with the uncertainty; that is difficult for us to think about.
- It's easy to long for the good-ole-days within any culture - when things were simpler, slower, and less
chaotic. In times of great turmoil, those who remember those days can be especially saddened. Today, we see Tahrir as a barren circle, littered with tents as well as garbage, trampled by millions weekly, and whose art is not the scenery but graffiti along government buildings and barricades. Once it was not so--Tahrir was a beautiful, tranquil, and picturesque square in the intersection of culture, history, and government - as seen in this picture, circa 1940's, with the Egyptian Museum in the background. Sometimes a reminder of the past can be a hopeful vision for the future: imagine Tahrir differently--it's something to hope for, something to work towards.
July 10, 10:00am
- We were pleasantly surprised last night as we watched news reports and tweets to not find any news of clashes while pro-Morsi/legitimacy groups marched downtown. There was one report of less than two hundred protesting outside the US Embassy last night, but it was also calm and uneventful. The US Embassy remains closed (reportedly, so does the British Embassy).
- The big news yesterday was the appointment of a Prime Minister and Vice-President. The Prime
Minister position has been the an ongoing political compromise conversation between various groups seeking to work together amidst the transitional government. In the end, liberal economist Hazem El-Beblawi was appointed by interim President Adly Mansour. El-Beblawi was a former finance minister in the SCAF led transitional period after Mubarak, and former UN undersecretary general from 1995-2000. Dr. Beblawi wrote a book titled "The Rentier State" as a part of understanding possible strategies for Arab State renewal and development in the coming years -- in that book he writes:
- Unfortunately, the Muslim Brotherhood and their Freedom & Justice Party have rejected offers to be a part of this diverse cabinet, as they continue to state, "We reject all that comes from this coup" - including a rejection of President Mansour's Constitutional declaration and timetable from the night before.
- However, the interim government has not written off the MB or other parties in the Islamic Alliance, as they prepare to reveal a "One Nation" reconciliation initiative to keep trying to build bridge together so all groups can build toward the future. This admirable effort may continue to fall on deaf ears, but the interim government has already proven to be making concessions to minority opinions as they continued to search for a Prime Minister that would appease the Salafi Nour party even after the Nour Party withdrew from participation; that was a point in which the interim government could have gone back to their first choice (El-Baradei) or their second choice (Ziad Bahaa El-Din) - but they didn't. They continued to seek a PM who could be agreed upon by all rather than further increase the divide.
- While the USA continues to debate whether or not to continue funding aid to Egypt, other nations are stepping up in a big way. Between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, $8 billion was pledged to Egypt just yesterday; with $5 billion coming from Saudi Arabia, and $2 of that to be directly deposited in the Egyptian Central Bank - each gave with public statements of support of the Egyptian people. Further, UAE is sending shipments of fuel to Egypt. These will help to stabilize the economy while the new interim government seeks political and financial reforms.
- Ramadan has begun here in Egypt, and with the start of this holy month came an announcement from the military encouraging the citizens of Egypt to "elevate their behavior to Ramadan principles." There were rumors of the military and interim government outlawing the possession/transport of guns in public areas -- obviously, this would be helpful! But, we have not come across any publicized report on this.
- There is a lot of good news in this update, but that is not to say that there is nothing negative. Rhetoric still remains angry and intense from the pro-Morsi/legitimacy groups who are now in the opposition role. Attacks in the northern Sinai and around the Suez Canal cities continue. Other incidents of sectarian violence and vandalism persists in Upper Egypt (southern). There is a lot of instability as we hope, pray, and move toward stability in Egypt. We remain safe - the community has been without incident and we are hopeful as we continue to meet with Egyptian Christian families and seek to encourage others by phone, email, or text messages. We have heard several of these families share upbeat and optimistic feelings for the future. We continue to hope with them.
we remain safe
July 9, 9:00am
- It is nice to wake up this morning without reading the flurry of negative events like yesterday morning. Things are not overly positive, but we managed to get through a night in Cairo without more bloodshed, so that's a step in the right direction.
- Last night, the interim government continues to work to build consensus among all parties and was able to release a Constitutional declaration that further proposes the military "roadmap" that was began with the ouster of Mohamed Morsi a week ago.
- What happened on July 8 at the Republican Guard Headquarters? This is still a mystery, though the military made their press conference that not only listed the deaths on their side of the conflict, and countered a lot of the statements against the military with their own pictures, videos, and account of events. Basically, the military insists that their installation was attacked with live fire, not just from the ground, but from on top of a building on a nearby street, and that their response was in defense of the installation from their position as they returned fire. They questioned the possibility of shell casings near the protestors, reminding the press that shell casings fall next to the shooter not at the target--the collection of shell casings throughout the demonstration area was trumpeted as proof of the military coming into the demonstration shooting the protestors. The military denied reports (that had also been disproven by the media) that women and children were killed and further warned against attempting to spur people on to violence and compromising the security of the country through false reports and inflammatory rhetoric.
- During the early reports and media portrayal of events yesterday, we posted on shameful/poor reporting that was not helpful to the rising tensions. At the center of this controversy was Al Jazeera Misr (the Egyptian branch of the international news network); we had found AJ-English to be a reliable source of information prior to the events yesterday morning when we were shocked at how the events were being reported. The AJ-M branch had been shut down during broadcast by the military when Morsi was ousted as a part of a blackout imposed of Islamist channels--a violation of freedom of press that is still being debated. The AJ-M correspondents and reporters found themselves un-welcomed by peers at the military press conference - the image here reportedly shows a crowd of reporters yelling at the AJ-M staff prior to the start of the conference and they were reportedly put out of the room. AJ-M and the larger network is crying foul for Egypt's bullying of their media; however, there are reports of around 20 staff members who resigned officially and publicly from the network branch due to perceived bias. One of the most respected of their journalists provided an interview with more detail to Cairo360 which we are linking here.
- The US and other nations, of course, sounded off on the events yesterday morning. The US sends billions in aid to Egypt as well as military support, but now finds themselves in a situation where they are trying to reconcile this long term relationship with current events that may go against their policies. They are attempting to remain neutral, directing the military to show restraint and the MB to cease the calls for violence - yet this political tight rope has led to their unfavorable opinion by BOTH sides of the divide here in Egypt. Anti-American rhetoric and posters have been common throughout the past couple weeks, and there is one report this morning of a call for demonstrations at the US Embassy today--the Embassy is closed again today, so that won't interfere with services--but we'll be watching carefully to see if this creates more tension with America and its citizens.
- Meanwhile, clashes continue around Egypt, too. Some MB here in Cairo stated that attacks in North Sinai would not stop unless President Morsi was restored to power; the context of this statement is unclear as it could be interpreted as a threat, or as an observation. Attacks in Upper Egypt continue as well as the southern, rural areas continue to see clashes not just built around the ouster of deposed-President Morsi, but also around long-term sectarian divides between Christians and Muslims; this is particularly saddening, as we watch and pray for our brothers and sisters who are in that area of the country. With all the reports regarding the attacks yesterday here in Cairo, very little was reported outside of Cairo except this similar account of "armed gunmen" attacking state buildings in Port Said.
- There are all sorts of stories, reports, and videos floating through the established media as well as through social networks; there are so many "eye witness" reports and so many perspectives that are colored by preconceived notions, all of which contradict each other and make it increasingly difficult to know what happened. Egypt moves "forward" in confusion and distrust - how far forward the country can move is day to day. And today, we continue to watch and pray for Egypt--thank you for joining us in those concerns and prayers...
all is "quiet" among conflicting reports
July 8, 3:30pm
- Watching to wondering -- the calm of the morning shattered by a clash between protestors and military near the Republican Guard Headquarters has reportedly left 42 dead and hundreds injured -- that is, sadly, confirmed.
- What has been denied is a report (that apparently is still being pushed by the Muslim Brotherhood) that among the dead are women and children, including a 6 month old baby. The MB's Freedom and Justice Party's webpage had pictures up early this morning and took them down after the pictures were challenged to be an old picture, reportedly from a Syrian battle. Egypt Independent reported that there were no children or no women killed during the unfortunate events this morning. Another reporter confirmed this through the Ambulance service and added that there were neither any women among the casualties; she is furthering her efforts to confirm these reports by seeking morgues. Yet, the international, televised media received those reports of dead women and children early this morning and ran with them, vilifying the military in the process and increasing tensions and anger through their viewership.
- Such a lack of credible/properly-confirmed reporting makes everyone question and seek all the more documentation regarding the "eye witness" accounts that are being thrown around. One reporter asked for patience as it was difficult to confirm anything at this point.
- Among the questions are, "who started the shooting and when?" Military claimed the RGHQ were attacked this morning before morning prayers - which is consistent with live Twitter reports that we read before the other "eye witness" reports. The MB and demonstrators are claiming that the military came into the demonstrators area shooting, even with "snipers" positioned to kill as many as demonstrators as possible -- and, to make matters worse, that they did so during prayers. The military worked at keeping groups separated yesterday so Cairo could come through the day with no violence. They put on aerial shows above crowds near all demonstrators with smoke trails of the Egyptian colors, and they did get through the night without incident in Cairo. Most of the news reported by all was jubilant and up beat crowds. So, why would the military seek to provoke a group during prayers? Even for the casual observer, that doesn't add up. An investigation into the events leading up to and during the "massacre" has begun.
- But, the Salafi Nour party is definitely out of negotiations with the interim government, and unless there is compelling evidence to support the military's claims, it will be difficult to see their participation any further. And how would such compelling evidence be provided? It's the worst possible "they said, they said" scenario.
- The MB has not only gained international attention through these events, but they also have restated their desire to have deposed-President Morsi reinstated. That would obviously not improve anything but only continue the divide.
- Though the interim government is trying to make decisions to lead past this event and lead toward rebuilding Egypt, the MB is calling for an uprising. That may have been preempted when "authorities" closed the MB's Cairo office with a seizure of weapons.
- We remain safe and all is quiet around us. We continue to scour the news sources that we have grown to trust and even the ones that have serious question marks in an attempt to learn anything beyond our safe haven so that we can be informed and able to make wise decisions. Neither the State Department nor the US Embassy in Cairo have made any updates to their security information; nor have we any updated security warnings or protocols that may have been learned by other expats in the area. We did hear of a couple of expat families who were being directed to go ahead and leave the country, while most here remain on standby -- it's the continuing situation of waiting to see what happens -- can we weather this storm or will we have to take shelter beyond? Meanwhile, some Cairo Christians called to ask us to dinner tomorrow and one of the national leaders is hopeful we can meet together at the beginning of next week :) - we continue to serve and encourage, if only in our willingness not to go.
from calm to chaos
July 8, 8:30am
- We've been staying up late for the last couple weeks, following various news sources late into the night as news has been happening late. We go to bed, and the first thing I do when I wake up is to check the Twitter feed, particularly scanning for the reporters and young revolutionaries on the scenes of the various gatherings. We went into Sunday, July 7 with a great deal of hope and prayer that we could escape the day moving toward peace rather than conflict -- and for the most part of the day, the military had kept the two sets of demonstrations separate and people gathered peacefully while the interim government leaders were in negotiations with all parties to select leaders, particularly the Prime Minister position.
- The mood through the Twitter feeds was light-hearted, sharing remarkable pictures and sharing unique quotes throughout the evening -- the only confrontations were not happening between protestors, but between protestors and journalists. CNN has not been well-received by supporters of recent events because of their continuous use of the word "coup" - there have been countless angry Facebook and Twitter statements, as well as protests even at the CNN offices in New York. Yesterday, CNN had to pull their reporters and all their cameras out of Tahrir Square because the protestors did not want CNN to provide any more "slanted" coverage -- this got really intense after a CNN broadcast of Tahrir Square was mislabeled as "Pro-Morsi".
- Meanwhile, at the real "pro-Morsi" rally, there was a different response to journalists. One very credible journalist who has been taking pictures, recording video commentary and interviews, and submitting written articles from Egypt for years went first to the "pro-Morsi" demonstrations to report from there. She stated that she was continually approached by young, English-speaking Egyptians who would ask, "are you a reporter?", and then they would tell her "verbatim" answers, implying that they had been coached to find and give a specific report to journalists.
- Again, things were calm, peaceful from all sides of Cairo through the evening, until about 3.5 / 4 hours ago. In the early morning hours, there were several Twitter reports of the beginnings of clashes happening near the Republican Guard Headquarters (RGHQ) where deposed President Morsi is supposedly held. This location is not far from where Pro-Morsi groups have been staging a sit in that they are reportedly prepared to carryon for months. From the reports that we are reading from eye witnesses, there's a precursor to the "massacre" type reports that we're getting on the news:
- Political fallout - the Salafi Nour Party indicated that they would be withdrawing from all political negotiations with the interim government. This is a huge blow to the interim proceedings - this orthodox/conservative Muslim group was giving credibility to the interim government, and were wielding a lot of power in negotiations; however, they will not be a party of the military killing Muslims, so they are waiting to get more information before they continue. I don't think they will be throwing their support to the "pro-Morsi" groups, though those groups will see their lack of participation as a "win" and may further rally the protests.
- There are so many different news stories we're trying to watch and read at the moment - I'll update more in the next several hours. I wanted to get this update out there so that you would know 1) that we're aware of what is happening, 2) to help you get possibly more information than what mainstream media may be sharing, and 3) to encourage you to keep praying -- today is likely to be interesting...
Happy "Anniversary" to us - Living in Cairo now for 18 months today!
July 7, 10:00am
- One week ago today, the world witnessed history's largest political gathering on the streets and squares throughout Egypt - they gathered as a massive vote of "no confidence", challenging the legitimacy of President Morsi's leadership position and powers. Days later, Egypt's population was separated by jubilation and judgment. Now, one week to that day, the challenge of "legitimacy" will continue as the former "anti-Morsi" and former "pro-Morsi" groups will gather for different demonstrations to either support or denounce what has happened. The gatherings may just be the recipe for further clashes, violence, vandalism, bloodshed, and death. As we stated in yesterday's update, we see no value in the former "anti-Morsi/opposition" groups gathering again - their points have been made emphatically, the military has sided with them to assist, a growing majority of the world is beginning to accept the transition -- continuing to gather in the streets only provokes and provides a target for the swells of anger that continue from the other side. But, since both sides plan to gather today, the "Waiting Game" continues to see whether or not we can proceed peacefully, or fall into a destructive downward spiral.
- The ongoing clashes and violence since the transition of government have resulted in 30 deaths and more than 1100 injuries throughout Egypt. Again, Alexandria is worse than Cairo; and the medium size, Nile Valley communities between Alexandria and Cairo are worse than that. But, the most intense, militaristic style fighting continues to happen in the northern Sinai peninsula. The Sinai has been a difficult area to contain for many years as extremists and even terrorists have either lived or camped in the area; President Morsi's administration struggled with several groups whose attacks on checkpoints and military facilities threatened the stability of the buffer between Egypt and the Gaza Strip -- some were critical of Morsi for what was either labeled as a slow or soft response to these groups. Now, these groups seem to be pushing not just for the return of Morsi's legitimacy as President, but for an Islamist agenda. In a recent wave of attacks, a Coptic priest was among those killed adding to the sectarian tension that already exists in various areas throughout Egypt.
- Late last night, a see-saw of events was confusing for most, but we saw it as a promising sign. The interim President Adly Mansour was making different appointments throughout the evening to various government positions, as well as advisors and aids on specific issues that may need wisdom during his transitional leadership period. In a surprising/not-so-surprising early announcement, Nobel-laureate and opposition spokesman, Mohamed El-Baradei was announced to be the interim Prime Minister; this was surprising because he has refused the post before, as well as refusing to run for president after the 2011 Revolution. Instead he has preferred advisory roles, seeking to assist "younger" potential leaders. Though El-Baradei is respected for his wisdom and integrity across the diverse spectrum of ideals of the many opposition and revolutionary leaders, as well as throughout the international community, he is literally despised by the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist factions--in fact, the MB quickly made a statement against El-Baradei based on the early reports. So, surprising that he was willing and that he would be appointed giving the current tension; not surprising because he would be an asset to the post. Before his position really became official, it was withdrawn because Interim President Mansour reportedly received word that the Salafi Nour party (and possibly other Salafi parties) would back the Muslim Brotherhoods "legitimacy campaign" if he was appointed. The participation and endorsement of the Salafi groups, are a more conservative Islamist group than the MB and Egypt's 2nd largest voting block, are huge components in the support and possibility of creating a new, diverse government. Without their participation, you have an interim-group in power consisting of largely liberal (secular or socialist) and Christian groups working against an Islamic base -- sectarian strife would only increase. So while this back-and-forth decision looked a bit chaotic on the surface, underneath reveals a great deal of wisdom to pull the plug on something that would have blown up in the face of the interim government and possibly pushed Egypt all the closer to civil conflict. This reveals a commitment to work for consensus, which will only strengthen their position in the future.
- On the opposite end of appointments, is the resignation of controversial Ministry of Culture, Alaa Abdel-Aziz. Since his appointment in May, he has been the center of controversy among the artistic community; he states that his resignation was a statement of unwillingness to support the "coup" against legitimate government.
- Meanwhile, we continue to live and serve in the midst of uncertainty and on a self-imposed "standby" status as we wait to see what will or will not develop. We made the decision to cancel the Cairo Christian Fellowship worship service again tonight to the proximity of several demonstrations; this is the second week in a row that we have had to cancel services--not for fear of safety in gathering, but the potential lack of safety in getting to or leaving the service. In conversations with several of the members, all appear to be well and are also watching and praying for an end to the strife around their country. Similarly, we have been able to communicate with a couple of the national church pastors who report that their congregants and the Church buildings are well; one of the national leader further affirmed that he is in contact with each pastor daily for a report of events in their communities--we praise God that he can say that all is well for these as well. This is of great relief to us as there are 4 congregations in the Alexandria area, one very near to the Sidi Gaber area that has a lot of demonstration activity; as well as congregations in Assuit and Menya where there has been a great deal of violent clashes. Continue to pray for the safety of these believers and the protection against the possibility of sectarian violence; pray for the pastors and their wisdom to lead and care for their congregations during these uncertain times.
- Finally, we'll close this update on a "funnier" note - I tweeted the link to this "over-the-top sarcastic, and overly simple" video that attempts to explain Egypt in less than 8 minutes -- I called it a western-dummies-guide to Egypt. Again, it is overly simplified and as a result of it's sarcasm, potentially offensive - but it cannot be any more offensive than the slanted dribble that seems to be coming out of so many western media outlets anyway...
- If there are intense or particularly interesting developments throughout today, we'll update them here -- otherwise, continue to follow us on Twitter as we update our situation or pass along credible retweets of reporters on the scenes throughout Egypt. and, as always, PRAY FOR EGYPT...
Tweet yesterday: "waiting for the other shoe to drop - or not - is agonizing"!
July 6, 9:00am
- once again, the sun is shining, the birds are singing, and the community around us is peaceful. It was
peaceful all night, despite hundreds fighting with each other just up the road a few kilometers. A few have asked where we are in the midst of the various events through Cairo. The picture, taken from a BBC online article, helps to answer that question -- at the southern end of Cairo is the Maadi district -- the Supreme Constitutional Court is near the north end of Maadi--not far from the Starbucks I like to frequent ;) As you can see from the map then, the areas of trouble are not necessarily close to us, though close to many we know and serve throughout the city. The church where the CCF meet each Sunday is just a few blocks north of Tahrir Square.
- there are so many conflicting reports, it's difficult to know what to quote and what to believe. I know that things looked bad from the various news media broadcasting from Tahrir Square last night, and violence of any sort is never good, but allow me to submit a few observations:
- though that new name is more friendly to the ears of the West, the US House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee released a favorable assessment to what has happened - read their report here - this was widely circulated on Facebook and Twitter, but it may have just strengthened the disdain of the pro-legitimacy groups to American leaders.
- These "hundreds of thousands" of pro-legitimacy have gathered and say they are going to camp out in the streets until their demands are met. But, I think those now in power think they'll just let them be for another 3-4 days and the start of Ramadan, in which Muslims observe a strict fast from dawn till dusk; if they continue to stay in the streets, the heat and the fast may motivate several to relocate. Nonetheless, here are their demands:
- Usually: Alexandria is worse than Cairo, countryside is worse than the cities - don't know why, but the coastal and 2nd largest city in Egypt always appears to have the greater frequency and intensity of violence during any dispute when compare to the larger capitol of Cairo. And, the Nile valley communities between Alexandria and Cairo are worse than both. Meanwhile, the various conflicting reports of sectarian violence, clashes between groups, and direct attacks on police stations or checkpoints is difficult to decipher, but all point to things being exceptionally dangerous in the outlying areas, particularly in the Sinai and south.
- So, what are we doing here? We are attempting to get in touch with pastors throughout the country; there are several in the north, and just as many in the south where greater atrocities have been reported. We hope to get good reports today, and we will attempt to pass them along to you. We have been in touch with the various CCF Kids families, & we will attempt to check in with various members of the CCF.
- Again, our community has been calm with no sights of disturbance--we recognize that this can change, and so we are watching and sharing information & security reports with the expat community. Though some of the expats we know have left, some have remained or are out of town on business and planning to return next week. We have friends at the American & British Embassies with whom we've been in contact. We are not taking any unnecessary risks, but we are attempting to prevent cabin fever, too. As we mentioned, we took advantage of the relative "ghost town" effect of Friday mornings to go see a movie. We went to church last night, walking through the neighborhoods to avoid driving through squares & by Mosques where there may be crowds. Titus & Grace were providing the skit for the children's program last night, & Grace brought a friend from church home with us to spend the night. We went across the street from the church to a private club for dinner--"American night" due to the 4th with a special menu--note: we won't do the special menu again and instead stick to the food we know they can cook :).
We are safe, and we are maintaining awareness; we pray the same is true for our brothers and sisters throughout this country. We are still learning how to serve them, and we especially need God's wisdom and grace at times like this. Thank you for your ongoing concern and prayers--you have blessed us!
Tweet yesterday: "waiting for the other shoe to drop - or not - is agonizing"!
July 5, 10:00am / 2:00pm (couldn't finish before we left*)
- First of all - thank you for your high level of interest and readership that is fueling your concern and prayers for us and the Egyptian people. This blog has averaged over 1000 readers/pageviews per month for the past 10 months; but, for July, we're already well over 800 readers, and we're averaging more than 12 readers per hour! Mindblowing and humbling.
- TGIF - This (may) Get Intense Fast - the Muslim Brotherhood held a press conference yesterday to condemn the "military coup" that had taken place. They agree with former-President Morsi's statement that he is still the rightful President of Egypt. Additionally, they want no part and will not accept any overture from the "insurgent authorities". They, and the Islamic Alliance, have called for marches and demonstrations on Friday (today) after prayers - they're stressing that these are to be peaceful. Whether or not these stay peaceful will depend on whether the young hooligans--who caused so much damage away from the places of anti-Morsi demonstrations in the last week--can be restrained and kept away from antagonizing the groups today. It is unlikely that their demonstrations will exceed the numbers viewed in last week's historic turnout--allow that to be the image, not the fighting. The absence of provocateurs will also allow the police and military to be separate from today's demonstrators -- the police/military who have aided this revolution/reformation are the new target of anger from the Islamic Alliance, so keeping their distance will help things remain peaceful. Early reports via Twitter this morning are that they are also planning a march to the Ministry of Defense -- if that does happen, some in the group may throw things and otherwise attempt to vandalize the building--hopefully the military and police can demonstrate some restraint if this happens.
- It's Friday, but Ramadan's coming -- this is the good news for Egypt right now. Ramadan, the Muslim holy month, begins either on July 9 or 10 (depending on the declaration of the lunar cycle) -- if we can get to that date peacefully, then maybe we can continue on peacefully.
*-* updating at 1:30pm - We have been going nearly stir crazy, suffering from "villa fever" behind closed doors watching the news and waiting. Last night, Titus said, "I thought we were going to see some summer movies each week." We replied that things have been a little crazy with this revolutionary/reformation build-up these past couple weekends of summer; but, this Friday morning could be possible before anything happens. We checked the web and "World War Z" was playing at the local theatre - Grace said, "are you kidding me? we're gonna go watch an end of the world movie at a time like this?!?" And, we got up this morning, went out before hardly anyone else was on the road, and watched Brad Pitt save the day with 3 Korean expats who had the same plan. (by the way, we liked the movie) Tonight, we'll attempt to get to the international church for worship - we'll probably walk so that we avoid the town squares where demonstrators may gather. And, if all is still calm, we'll go across the street for dinner at a local club, where it's gonna be "American night" because of the 4th of July. It's out plan -- I hope we can continue to make it more of a fun day for the kids. We haven't had to evacuate physically, but "fun" seems to have been evacuated from the summer break. To add to that insult, our vacation, planned to be at an Egyptian resort on the Red Sea, may have been cancelled - we're trying to figure out if that can be salvaged; of course, if we end up evacuated, we'll lose that plan anyway and have to do something in Germany or wherever we end up. Yet, for the loss of lives, destruction, suffering, uncertainty, and anger we see among the people of this wonderful country, a loss of "vacation" is a little inconvenience.
*-* Finally, for those of you getting your news and commentary from Western media, and to those of you who are hearing phrases like "military coup", "impatient Egyptian people", and "loss of democracy", let me offer you a balanced media perspective from a journalist from this country. Bassem Sabry has been following several story lines for years that have led up to the past week, as well as the story lines that will lead out of this past week. He chronicles several key things since last November, and towards the end, he laments where we are before his conclusion. "How Morsi and the Brotherhood Lost Egypt" - well worth the time to read.
*-* So what's happening now. It's not pretty in some parts of Egypt, though things remain calm and peaceful all around us. The afternoon prayers have ended and demonstrations/marches have begun. The most recent report from a reliable journalist source states "Army announces a state of emergency in South Sinai and Suez after Islamist gun attack in Arish: Al-Ahram" - the Sinai and rural areas have been difficult and violent since the ouster of Morsi. There are multiple sources referencing rocket-grenades in these areas of trouble where police stations are under attack.
*-* If you want to follow events moment by moment, here's some options:
PLEASE PRAY for EGYPT Today!!!
July 4, 12:00pm
- Happy Independence Day!?!?! It was a long night of celebrations and accusations last night. This morning, few people are stirring, the news is non-existent compared to the pace of the past 72 hours, and the Waiting Game continues.
- one video recap / update:
- Important news -- these are all largely "developing" stories was things are definitely in a state of constant movement...
July 3, 9:30pm
- As many of you have now heard, or heard from yourself through the live broadcast...
This surreal statement on the television or computer screens was unthinkable, even just a week ago. It was also surreal to see the military seated with the opposition leaders, the Grand Imam of Al Azhar Mosque, and the Coptic Pope.
But it also reminded me of this image that we also screen captured:
This was the picture, including an ecstatic scene in Tahrir Square on June 24, 2012 -- as we watched that announcement, I took to the computer and wrote this post:
In that post, I wrote:
Prophetic? NO - that writing on the wall was there for everyone to see, but now the Egyptian people have ousted another leader.
And, guess what? We're right back to where we've been nearly every morning and evening for the past week:
Now What?!?!?
Now, the Chief Justice of the High Constitutional Court will take the reigns of the country; Egypt will not be led by the military, so this was at the very least, "a military-assisted coup." By the way, Chief Justice Adly Mansour, 68. took the job just a few days ago!
Now the Constitution is suspended -- amendments, perhaps a whole new draft, has to be created and approved.
Now Egypt still needs a Parliament (lower house) and a Shura Council (higher house); Presidential elections will have to be organized and a whole new round of politicking and finger pointing will likely begin.
Now, poverty still exists; shortages still exist; the Pound is terribly devalued and the foreign reserves still have low balances; Egypt still owes more than $5 billion for gas imports; and traffic will still be a mess. There's a lot to do in the midst of an impatient and fractured country.
Now, the praying is not over -- in fact, our prayers have to become all the more intense.
Now these Pro-Morsi or Pro-"legitimacy" groups are angered. The Al Jazeera correspondent on the scene at the Pro-Morsi rally in Nasr City stated that the moment the crowd heard that the Constitution had been suspended and that this "coup" was taking place, the leader on stage led a responsive oath to pledge to God with their lives not to let this action stand. Reportedly, the Muslim Brotherhood satellite broadcast channel went "dark", as it was also reported that other Islamic channels also went dark -- perhaps as a preemptive move by the military to keep messages of rage from being spread. But these Pro-legitimacy groups have grassroots networks, too. They don't need specialized television stations to fire them up. They, by their estimation, have just seen legitimate political action and democratic decisions trumped by people on the streets -- will they now take to the streets to "take back" the power and position that has been lost?
Now, that threat of violence is the legitimate and expected fear throughout the media and others. Early reports are that violent clashes have begun in a a few of the smaller communities throughout Egypt. How the military, police, and this new/temporary leadership respond to these clashes - and how long it takes to put an end to them - will determine the present future stability of Egypt.
Now, we have lots of questions: will the National Salvation Front continue to work together or fracture back to their dozen or so groups? Will the Salafi parties move from the 2nd most dominant political party to the first (keeping in mind they are more religiously conservative than the MB)? What happens to the MB now--what happens to Morsi?? Lack of credibility along with high profiles will make their present future difficult!
And Now--barring major violent clashes that put us back on the edge of our seat--now it's time to rest!
It's been quite a week -- thanks for sticking with us, and please, continue to
July 3, 11:00am - 6 hours from Armed Forces Deadline
- Last night, I began the update with two bullets that read, "Sadly, we just listened to President Morsi..." and "...he was defiant." In the late hours of the night, which classify as the early hours of the morning, President Morsi finally broke silence with the Egyptian people (though there were "tweets" from his office) and addressed the people for the first time since the historic gatherings from June 29-July 2; and most importantly, it was the first address to the nation since the military issued their 48-hour deadline to end the political standoff. In light of the growing tensions on the streets, the increase in vandalism and hoodlum activity away from the largely peaceful gatherings by both sides in Cairo, and yet the increasing reports of violent, even deadly, clashes between groups in other cities and governorates - in those late hours last night I expected more than what all news outlets seem to be classifying as "defiance." As we listened, we did not hear anything new a part from the "plan" he offered in a nearly 3 hour long speech in the late hours last Wednesday night; as we have rested and returned to reading the reports, there apparently were "some concessions" as outlined by this Ahram Online article:
- There were three resulting responses from this speech:
- So, some of the western media, like this CNN editorial "Give Morsy a chance to fix this" wonder why the Egyptian people are attempting to oust their president after just one year in office, further wondering why they would abandon the democratic process all together. Opponents like those in the National Salvation Front argue that though they went into the last year and a half seeking a democracy, they feel that the leadership of President Morsi has kept them from that, citing the break of trust in an agreement with revolutionaries that led to President Morsi receiving the close (see "How to Win an Election and Lose a Presidency") but majority vote; the lack of Parliament and respect for the judiciary that allows for checks and balances; and the lack of participation offered to opposing views while also the recent increase in charges filed against media and bloggers who express contrary opinions.
- BUT, the best way to understand all of this may be in understanding the statements made in this editorial titled, "It's the Egyptian Identity, Stupid" - in which the author argues that the emotional and volatile response of the people is not due to political or economic decisions and losses in the last year, but the loss of identity and culture that has been attacked by the Brotherhoodization (or Akhwwana) of Egypt. For those of us in church ministry, this POSSIBLE argument/rationale should not be a difficult concept to grasp - any time a new pastor attempts changes to a congregation that has existed for decades, an emotional/volatile response often occurs that is not logical - why? Because you're messing with their identity, their culture, their ethos. To some extent, based on some of the Egyptians we've met and interacted, the rhetoric and emotions that have been expressed do mirror those who've struggled with a new pastor.
- So, I began writing this update at 11:00 am - it's now 12:30 pm, and the news keeps coming:
July 3, 12:30am
- Sadly, we just listened to President Morsi, in yet another late night press conference, speak for over an hour without really anything new to say: 1) He was elected democratically; 2) Constitution, "great" constitution, was completed quickly and approved by 64%*; 3) through this legitimacy, he has sworn to uphold the Constitution, and 4) no one can keep me from that duty. (*64% of those who voted -- many boycotted the vote after it was quickly ratified due to President Morsi giving himself sweeping powers last November, a major source of frustration and criticism from the opposition groups.")
- Basically, he was defiant. No concessions, and really no new plan a part from items from his 3 hour speech a week ago - except, some sort of plan for a "media ethics" committee or amendment that will help media to recognize their responsibility to building the country, not tear it down. Again, this was the new segment in the midst of the same action steps he proposed last Wednesday, and this new element sounds like a means of censoring the media.
- meanwhile, up to and during his speech, Twitter was reporting escalating violence at a few spots in Cairo, listeners in disbelief from the Anti-Morsi groups, and emboldened listeners at the Pro-Morsi groups.
- time for some sleep -- it could be a long, difficult, day tomorrow -- it definitely has the potential to be historic...
July 2, 8:30pm
- For the most part today, it was peaceful from what we could see and hear from Cairo - there have been some reports of clashes largely in smaller communities throughout the country - but here in Cairo, people were mostly gathering in their various "camps" of support. That's in past tense because current Tweet reports are beginning to share that groups are moving closer together in Cairo and that tensions are escalating, even some beginnings of clashes.
- Reuter's quotes source with military's proposed Roadmap - which includes a dismissal of both the Parliament and the Constitution, as well as setting up a diverse interim council to amend a Constitution before Presidential elections could be established - but, the military says this is not a planned coup!
- Meanwhile, Al Jazeera English news anchors just referred to a Muslim Brotherhood official who said they were ready to take on the military for the sake of the Presidency. This sentiment has been shared in many ways from what we have seen in various stories like this one, "Brotherhood leader calls for 'martyrdom' to stop Egypt coup".
- This, again, raises the question, "What if the deadline passes and President Morsi and his administration refuse to step aside - what's the "roadmap' for that scenario?" This story references that such scenarios have do not usually turn out well, "Certainly the pattern of removing an elected institution with support on the ground by a mix of street mobilization and army intervention does not lead to positive outcomes. Military dictatorships, civil wars, or both are usually the result. Spain in 1936, Iran in 1953, Chile in 1973, Turkey in 1980, Sudan in 1989, Algeria in 1992 and Tajikistan in 1992 highlight the processes quite well." from "What happens if President Mursi is removed?"
- Ahram Online has resumed their updating live blog - here's a list of key events reported in the blog's 19:00 update:
- The Cairo Embassy page includes this link, "Statement from the White House" to President Morsi in a phone call, which include, "President Obama encouraged President Morsy to take steps to show that he is responsive to their concerns, and underscored that the current crisis can only be resolved through a political process."
- The National Salvation Front, the large umbrella organization of opposition political parties, gave their approval of the Military's "Roadmap" plan - of course, several Pro-Morsi/legitimacy parties have expressed their disapproval as well.
- this is it for now - we continue to watch and wait to see what may or may not happen in the next few hours before we try to get some sleep for the big day tomorrow. One last thing - thank you all for your overwhelming and consistent outpouring of support and prayers for the Egyptian people and our family. We are blessed by your concerns and prayers. We are all well, and at peace.
Original post: High Stakes Waiting Game, morning July 2
Yesterday was an unprecedented, unending game of word-smithing and politicking that has Egypt on the brink of--who knows what?!?
(catch up on a summary of yesterday's events from our post "What a Day!")
And here's a BBC video that outlines a bit of that update and then what happened once we went to bed after 1:00 am and apparently just before President Morsi's statement that came nearer to 1:30am AND on the President's Facebook page (not a televised broadcast)!
As mentioned, the President makes his statement in either the latest hours of the night or the earliest hours of the morning--and though public, in an obscure way (no matter how popular Facebook is). His mood is obviously defiant - just as the military didn't mention President Morsi's name in their statement, President Morsi doesn't reference the 48-hour deadline. A back-and-forth, tit-for-tat, failure of either side to really acknowledge one another's authority.
Yet, the military / Armed Forces have clearly sided with the people because though they didn't acknowledge the Presidency, they intentionally acknowledged the people by making several sweeps above the swelling Tahrir Square crowds in military helicopters dangling flags -- "and the crowd goes wild!"
Meanwhile, though the President didn't acknowledge the deadline, he said that the AF statement was "confusing" and alluded to the AF's "roadmap" when he said that he was continuing to work on his own plan for reconciliation through "dialogue". Though, I'm not sure with whom he is dialoguing, because there have been no reports of any opposition figures willing to talk with the President; in fact, the support of the military has emboldened the opposition to say that anything less than stepping aside would be unacceptable.
The President is not without support. The ongoing emergency meeting of the Muslim Brotherhood and members of the Islamic Alliance parties in support of his legitimacy made their late night/early morning statements by television, 1) rejecting the military's deadline, 2) calling for supporters to fill the streets and squares of Egypt to demonstrate their perceived majority opinion, and 3) to stage their own sit-ins to counter that of the Tamarod and opposition groups until the legitimacy of the Presidency is secure.
However, not all Islamic parties are marching to this tune. The Salafi Nour and Call Parties made statements last night calling for early elections. They claim that they respect and support the legitimacy of the Presidency, but the only way forward to prevent a civil war would be agreement to early elections. Commentators in the last week or so, after these parties refused to participate in either sides' demonstrations, wondered whether or not this was the Salafi's distancing themselves from the Brotherhood in a "high road" effort to maintain their status as the 2nd largest voting block while the Brotherhood's base seemed to be crumbling. Based on their previous voting records over the past year, they may stand the most to gain, particularly if the opposition groups fail to rally around 1 candidate for President or a few candidates for Parliament as opposed to the splintering that happened in the first round of elections.
and once again, we're in the same place we were Monday morning after the historic demonstrations,
Now What???
Now we're in waiting game - a high stakes waiting game.
The Pro-Morsi/legitimacy/Islamic-Project groups will be taking to the streets today to express and demonstrate that they are the majority and that the result of the ballot-box still stands.
The Anti-Morsi/Tamarod/Opposition groups will be taking to the streets for their planned "Perseverance March" to the Presidential Palace today at 5:00 pm in accordance with the deadline set by the Tamarod organizers prior to the Armed Forces statement.
The two sides are likely to meet - then what? Both have advocated "non-violence", but the rhetoric has been ratcheted up, especially in the wake of deaths, injuries, and property damage on both sides, from various gatherings and clashes a part from demonstrations, from Alexandria to Assuit and everywhere in between. Any further incident can create a domino effect.
Now we wait until the expiration of the Armed Forces 48-hour deadline, and though they've said they are not intending a military coup, how do they enforce what they said with a defiant President and administration? This forms the new, and deadly Catch-22:
(original story below)
July 13, 4:00pm
- Yesterday was a busy day, full of ups and downs, and I was unable to post any updates. Really, there's not been much to update. Protestors who support either ousted-President Morsi, or "democratic legitimacy" continue to gather and demand Morsi's reinstatement -- the gatherings have been peaceful, though the lasting nature of this peace seems uncertain: for example, the Muslim Brotherhood's "youth" program (younger members) offered to stop violence if Morsi and other leaders would be released by the government. That's an interesting press conference from a group that has been advocating "peaceful protest".
- oh, and the anti-Morsi, or the support of sudden-change-in-government, group continue to meet in Tahrir Square to celebrate change. This was also a peaceful gathering with the participants breaking the dawn-til-dawn fast together in the Square.
- Local reporters and international correspondents here in Cairo have made a couple of interesting observations or commentary:
1) several have noted that there seems to be a concerted and intentional change in the appearance and rhetoric of the "pro-Morsi/legitimacy" group - several of these have noted what appears to be an attempt to appeal to the Western media coverage and the democracies of the West. There has been a removal of potentially offensive banners, speakers have been intentionally addressing other nations to step in to correct this wrong, and there has been a sharp decrease in the rhetoric of "martyrdom" for this cause. Regardless if this change is intentional by the MB and Islamic alliance leadership, it's working. First Germany and then the United States issued statements calling for the release of ousted-President Morsi. The military maintains that they are keeping him for his safety, as well as to prevent his release from sparking further unrest.
2) Others have noted that despite the international pressure, it is not likely that ousted-President Morsi will be reinstated by the military or interim government in any capacity. So, some have hypothesized that the MB's real goal is enough international attention to gain enough favor to prevent further prosecution or persecution from the current interim government.- While the interim government continues to try to build a consensus leadership cabinet (a slow, tedious process), and while citizens gather in different squares either in support or opposition of recent events, the military has shifted their focus to correcting the instability in the Sinai due to continued strikes against police stations and checkpoints by heavily armed militia groups. The military made concerted efforts over this weekend with the use of more troops and advanced weaponry including their Apache helicopters and stripped-down F-16's. The report today is that there was calm this morning after clashes all night. We hope they can get a handle on what has been an ongoing, dangerous threat.
- Finally, on a personal note, we're still here in Cairo. We thought we could work out our on-again-off-again vacation plans to the south Sinai peninsula - but those plans fell through once again. So, we'll continue to keep ourselves as busy and sane as humanly possible. Unfortunately, our ministry opportunities continue to be interrupted due to road closures (either by military or demonstrations), uncertainty of demonstrations near meeting places, and other concerns. This has made the "slow" summer slower. I was able to fulfill a commitment as a guest speaker for the St. Andrews United Church of Cairo this past Friday morning, which was nice. I hope that we see things return to a normal schedule in the near future...
July 11, 6:00pm
- A couple follow-up stories that relate to previous updates...
1) Why the "Gulf States Embrace Post-Brotherhood Egypt" is an interesting article offering a few insights into why a few neighboring Arab nations are suddenly sending billions to back up their rhetoric of support to the Egyptian people post-Morsi's administration. The article also mentions that UAE's support was just the "first step."
2) In previous updates in the past two weeks, as well as throughout our election coverage last year, we noted how the Muslim Brotherhood and (at the time) candidate Mohamed Morsi were able to gain support of anti-Mubarak revolutionaries that helped them to overcome Shafiq in the run-off election (though those results are still under legal contest by Shafiq). I just found this article from Ahram Online that was published days before the now famous June 30 demonstrations that outlines the - at least perceived - breaks in agreement with several revolutionary groups made at the Fairmont hotel that led to their collective endorsement. The article further chronicles different decisions that led to further alienating Morsi from this support base (again, from their perception). This article "Once election allies, Egypt's 'Fairmont; opposition turn against Morsi" is an informative piece on the support that crumbled underneath Egypt's first democratically elected President.
- We're still safe and good; Grace and Titus had a kids program practice (helping out with the local international church this summer), and the rest of us worked out or swam at the school. It was nice to get out today because we will likely be stuck inside watching the news and twitter feeds tomorrow as demonstrations are set to take place.
July 11, 9:00am
- Good morning from sunny Cairo! The news is slowing down, but the waiting seems to lag on and on. Waiting for what? We have no idea--there's just this sense that something may happen, and you just keep living in anticipation of the "what if's". Add to that the decline in our own activity--partly because we haven't been able to have weekly worship with the CCF, but most is just the routine of less to do in the summer. We wanted to go see more throughout the city or Egypt this summer--but, we can't because of security concerns (again, the "what if's"). Sadly, we've come to the conclusion that we shouldn't go to south Sinai this Saturday where we were scheduled to vacation for a week. Because we travel by multiple squares on our way to or from activities in Maadi, we have to be careful to not be out too late when gatherings may begin. It's a bit like house-arrest :(
- Good financial news continued for Egypt yesterday: Kuwait pledged their own $4 billion; $1 billion loan, $1 billion in oil products, and $2 billion deposit in the central bank of Egypt. This is in addition to the $8 billion from Saudi Arabia and the UAE--that's $12 billion in 36 hours for the new interim government! On a side note--if there are any other Middle Eastern nations looking for a bank account to deposit a billion--or million or a few hundred thousand--just call!
- Though demonstrations and sit-ins returned to the Presidential Palace area last night, At this point, we're waiting on Friday as there is yet another "million man" protest march planned by the pro-Morsi/legitimacy groups. Both of these are in part to further express their displeasure with the "coup" and interim government, and in part to protest the military's "killing of demonstrators" last Monday morning. Each demonstration seems to be filled with thousands who are peacefully gathering to express their displeasure of their vote's power being stripped--this is understandable frustration that nearly anyone in democratic system can appreciate; however, there has also been questionable rhetoric in interviews among the demonstrators and even from the speeches on the stages that border on inciting violence. This is in part the argument for the arrest warrants issued for several leading Muslim Brotherhood leaders in the past two days. If these leaders show up to the demonstrations to make a speech, will anyone attempt to arrest them before or after their appearing?
- Is the debate (on the "official" US position on whether or not the situation in Egypt is a "coup") ending? Last night, a report based on statements made by Jen Psaki, State Department spokeswoman, circulated among various reporters we follow on Twitter -- they wondered in the twittersphere if this was the beginning indication of the US supporting the interim government. In the report, when Psaki was asked about the democratically elected President of Egypt, she said, "It wasn't a democratic rule. That's the point."
- Meanwhile, though both groups throw around a lot of anti-American rhetoric, participants in both
- While we continue to wait and see, we maintain a high level of concern for the Christians we are here to serve. We continue to get reports from national church leaders that the pastors and church members throughout the country have been safe, but they are concerned about the activities around them. According to this AP report, there is reason for concern for Christians in Egypt during this controversial interim period. If things get increasingly worse in Egypt, we may be removed for a time--but those we serve would be left here to deal with the uncertainty; that is difficult for us to think about.
- It's easy to long for the good-ole-days within any culture - when things were simpler, slower, and less
July 10, 10:00am
- We were pleasantly surprised last night as we watched news reports and tweets to not find any news of clashes while pro-Morsi/legitimacy groups marched downtown. There was one report of less than two hundred protesting outside the US Embassy last night, but it was also calm and uneventful. The US Embassy remains closed (reportedly, so does the British Embassy).
- The big news yesterday was the appointment of a Prime Minister and Vice-President. The Prime
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| El Beblawi (left) with interim President Adly Mansour (picture appeared on home page of Ahram Online today) |
This guy sounds like a great financial planner - and obviously, Egypt is in need of such leadership, but the Prime Minister role is bigger. Will his experience and expertise translate into helping chart a course to a new government for Egypt? In his first televised statement, he has publicly vowed to form the "most important government in Egypt history" through a diverse and competent cabinet.Under the new conditions, the Arab states must either complete their transformation into secular polities with basic democratic regimes and productive systems or increasingly rely on police and repression. The latter course may maintain power in the same hands for some time, but will contribute little towards solving the basic problem, which is to give increased strength to productive activity and rely on its progress to increase state revenue from domestic sources.Efficient production, capable of sustaining the economy and competing on world markets, is in many cases possible. But it requires certain basic steps which governments have been understandably reluctant to take. The public must be convinced that it has to pay for the state, not rely on it. Public revenues must be devoted to productive uses, not to subsidising private consumption or paying for costly weapons systems or prestigious schemes. Reforms of public management must be undertaken and coherent policy decisions made on crucial policy variables such as subsidies, interest and exchange rates.These are difficult decisions.
- Unfortunately, the Muslim Brotherhood and their Freedom & Justice Party have rejected offers to be a part of this diverse cabinet, as they continue to state, "We reject all that comes from this coup" - including a rejection of President Mansour's Constitutional declaration and timetable from the night before.
- However, the interim government has not written off the MB or other parties in the Islamic Alliance, as they prepare to reveal a "One Nation" reconciliation initiative to keep trying to build bridge together so all groups can build toward the future. This admirable effort may continue to fall on deaf ears, but the interim government has already proven to be making concessions to minority opinions as they continued to search for a Prime Minister that would appease the Salafi Nour party even after the Nour Party withdrew from participation; that was a point in which the interim government could have gone back to their first choice (El-Baradei) or their second choice (Ziad Bahaa El-Din) - but they didn't. They continued to seek a PM who could be agreed upon by all rather than further increase the divide.
- While the USA continues to debate whether or not to continue funding aid to Egypt, other nations are stepping up in a big way. Between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, $8 billion was pledged to Egypt just yesterday; with $5 billion coming from Saudi Arabia, and $2 of that to be directly deposited in the Egyptian Central Bank - each gave with public statements of support of the Egyptian people. Further, UAE is sending shipments of fuel to Egypt. These will help to stabilize the economy while the new interim government seeks political and financial reforms.
- Ramadan has begun here in Egypt, and with the start of this holy month came an announcement from the military encouraging the citizens of Egypt to "elevate their behavior to Ramadan principles." There were rumors of the military and interim government outlawing the possession/transport of guns in public areas -- obviously, this would be helpful! But, we have not come across any publicized report on this.
- There is a lot of good news in this update, but that is not to say that there is nothing negative. Rhetoric still remains angry and intense from the pro-Morsi/legitimacy groups who are now in the opposition role. Attacks in the northern Sinai and around the Suez Canal cities continue. Other incidents of sectarian violence and vandalism persists in Upper Egypt (southern). There is a lot of instability as we hope, pray, and move toward stability in Egypt. We remain safe - the community has been without incident and we are hopeful as we continue to meet with Egyptian Christian families and seek to encourage others by phone, email, or text messages. We have heard several of these families share upbeat and optimistic feelings for the future. We continue to hope with them.
we remain safe
July 9, 9:00am
- It is nice to wake up this morning without reading the flurry of negative events like yesterday morning. Things are not overly positive, but we managed to get through a night in Cairo without more bloodshed, so that's a step in the right direction.
- Last night, the interim government continues to work to build consensus among all parties and was able to release a Constitutional declaration that further proposes the military "roadmap" that was began with the ouster of Mohamed Morsi a week ago.
-- a referendum on amendments* to the now suspended Constitution in about 4 months
-- Parliamentary elections** 15 days after the successful passing of the Constitution
-- Presidential election one week after Parliament goes in session
The excellent article linked above further shares that the interim President has been given full legislative powers in the interim with a couple of exceptions. *The Constitution ammendments will be voted on by a Committee of 10 consisting of judges and legal professors; amendments can be submitted through one of 50 different representatives of an Assembly that will be comprised of various segments/sects of society. **Some of the wording of the Constitution has already been changed and different aspects of articles merged--among these changes were the lack of mention of the Shura Council or the higher legislative house, implying it may be dropped all together in the new government framework.- However, as reported in the updates below, the Salafi's have withdrawn from the consensus builiding efforts and proposed their own "roadmap". The statements by the Salafi leaders indicated that they joined the military transition plan in an effort to avoid bloodshed, but since we now have had blood shed through the July 8 events, they are separating.
- What happened on July 8 at the Republican Guard Headquarters? This is still a mystery, though the military made their press conference that not only listed the deaths on their side of the conflict, and countered a lot of the statements against the military with their own pictures, videos, and account of events. Basically, the military insists that their installation was attacked with live fire, not just from the ground, but from on top of a building on a nearby street, and that their response was in defense of the installation from their position as they returned fire. They questioned the possibility of shell casings near the protestors, reminding the press that shell casings fall next to the shooter not at the target--the collection of shell casings throughout the demonstration area was trumpeted as proof of the military coming into the demonstration shooting the protestors. The military denied reports (that had also been disproven by the media) that women and children were killed and further warned against attempting to spur people on to violence and compromising the security of the country through false reports and inflammatory rhetoric.
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| a reporter tweeted this pic with this text: "Chaos in army and police presser as journalists shout 'Al Jazeera Channel out' police spox plead for calm" |
- The US and other nations, of course, sounded off on the events yesterday morning. The US sends billions in aid to Egypt as well as military support, but now finds themselves in a situation where they are trying to reconcile this long term relationship with current events that may go against their policies. They are attempting to remain neutral, directing the military to show restraint and the MB to cease the calls for violence - yet this political tight rope has led to their unfavorable opinion by BOTH sides of the divide here in Egypt. Anti-American rhetoric and posters have been common throughout the past couple weeks, and there is one report this morning of a call for demonstrations at the US Embassy today--the Embassy is closed again today, so that won't interfere with services--but we'll be watching carefully to see if this creates more tension with America and its citizens.
- Meanwhile, clashes continue around Egypt, too. Some MB here in Cairo stated that attacks in North Sinai would not stop unless President Morsi was restored to power; the context of this statement is unclear as it could be interpreted as a threat, or as an observation. Attacks in Upper Egypt continue as well as the southern, rural areas continue to see clashes not just built around the ouster of deposed-President Morsi, but also around long-term sectarian divides between Christians and Muslims; this is particularly saddening, as we watch and pray for our brothers and sisters who are in that area of the country. With all the reports regarding the attacks yesterday here in Cairo, very little was reported outside of Cairo except this similar account of "armed gunmen" attacking state buildings in Port Said.
- There are all sorts of stories, reports, and videos floating through the established media as well as through social networks; there are so many "eye witness" reports and so many perspectives that are colored by preconceived notions, all of which contradict each other and make it increasingly difficult to know what happened. Egypt moves "forward" in confusion and distrust - how far forward the country can move is day to day. And today, we continue to watch and pray for Egypt--thank you for joining us in those concerns and prayers...
all is "quiet" among conflicting reports
July 8, 3:30pm
- Watching to wondering -- the calm of the morning shattered by a clash between protestors and military near the Republican Guard Headquarters has reportedly left 42 dead and hundreds injured -- that is, sadly, confirmed.
- What has been denied is a report (that apparently is still being pushed by the Muslim Brotherhood) that among the dead are women and children, including a 6 month old baby. The MB's Freedom and Justice Party's webpage had pictures up early this morning and took them down after the pictures were challenged to be an old picture, reportedly from a Syrian battle. Egypt Independent reported that there were no children or no women killed during the unfortunate events this morning. Another reporter confirmed this through the Ambulance service and added that there were neither any women among the casualties; she is furthering her efforts to confirm these reports by seeking morgues. Yet, the international, televised media received those reports of dead women and children early this morning and ran with them, vilifying the military in the process and increasing tensions and anger through their viewership.
- Such a lack of credible/properly-confirmed reporting makes everyone question and seek all the more documentation regarding the "eye witness" accounts that are being thrown around. One reporter asked for patience as it was difficult to confirm anything at this point.
- Among the questions are, "who started the shooting and when?" Military claimed the RGHQ were attacked this morning before morning prayers - which is consistent with live Twitter reports that we read before the other "eye witness" reports. The MB and demonstrators are claiming that the military came into the demonstrators area shooting, even with "snipers" positioned to kill as many as demonstrators as possible -- and, to make matters worse, that they did so during prayers. The military worked at keeping groups separated yesterday so Cairo could come through the day with no violence. They put on aerial shows above crowds near all demonstrators with smoke trails of the Egyptian colors, and they did get through the night without incident in Cairo. Most of the news reported by all was jubilant and up beat crowds. So, why would the military seek to provoke a group during prayers? Even for the casual observer, that doesn't add up. An investigation into the events leading up to and during the "massacre" has begun.
- But, the Salafi Nour party is definitely out of negotiations with the interim government, and unless there is compelling evidence to support the military's claims, it will be difficult to see their participation any further. And how would such compelling evidence be provided? It's the worst possible "they said, they said" scenario.
- The MB has not only gained international attention through these events, but they also have restated their desire to have deposed-President Morsi reinstated. That would obviously not improve anything but only continue the divide.
- Though the interim government is trying to make decisions to lead past this event and lead toward rebuilding Egypt, the MB is calling for an uprising. That may have been preempted when "authorities" closed the MB's Cairo office with a seizure of weapons.
- We remain safe and all is quiet around us. We continue to scour the news sources that we have grown to trust and even the ones that have serious question marks in an attempt to learn anything beyond our safe haven so that we can be informed and able to make wise decisions. Neither the State Department nor the US Embassy in Cairo have made any updates to their security information; nor have we any updated security warnings or protocols that may have been learned by other expats in the area. We did hear of a couple of expat families who were being directed to go ahead and leave the country, while most here remain on standby -- it's the continuing situation of waiting to see what happens -- can we weather this storm or will we have to take shelter beyond? Meanwhile, some Cairo Christians called to ask us to dinner tomorrow and one of the national leaders is hopeful we can meet together at the beginning of next week :) - we continue to serve and encourage, if only in our willingness not to go.
PRAY For EGYPT!
from calm to chaos
July 8, 8:30am
- We've been staying up late for the last couple weeks, following various news sources late into the night as news has been happening late. We go to bed, and the first thing I do when I wake up is to check the Twitter feed, particularly scanning for the reporters and young revolutionaries on the scenes of the various gatherings. We went into Sunday, July 7 with a great deal of hope and prayer that we could escape the day moving toward peace rather than conflict -- and for the most part of the day, the military had kept the two sets of demonstrations separate and people gathered peacefully while the interim government leaders were in negotiations with all parties to select leaders, particularly the Prime Minister position. 
- The mood through the Twitter feeds was light-hearted, sharing remarkable pictures and sharing unique quotes throughout the evening -- the only confrontations were not happening between protestors, but between protestors and journalists. CNN has not been well-received by supporters of recent events because of their continuous use of the word "coup" - there have been countless angry Facebook and Twitter statements, as well as protests even at the CNN offices in New York. Yesterday, CNN had to pull their reporters and all their cameras out of Tahrir Square because the protestors did not want CNN to provide any more "slanted" coverage -- this got really intense after a CNN broadcast of Tahrir Square was mislabeled as "Pro-Morsi".
- Meanwhile, at the real "pro-Morsi" rally, there was a different response to journalists. One very credible journalist who has been taking pictures, recording video commentary and interviews, and submitting written articles from Egypt for years went first to the "pro-Morsi" demonstrations to report from there. She stated that she was continually approached by young, English-speaking Egyptians who would ask, "are you a reporter?", and then they would tell her "verbatim" answers, implying that they had been coached to find and give a specific report to journalists.
- Again, things were calm, peaceful from all sides of Cairo through the evening, until about 3.5 / 4 hours ago. In the early morning hours, there were several Twitter reports of the beginnings of clashes happening near the Republican Guard Headquarters (RGHQ) where deposed President Morsi is supposedly held. This location is not far from where Pro-Morsi groups have been staging a sit in that they are reportedly prepared to carryon for months. From the reports that we are reading from eye witnesses, there's a precursor to the "massacre" type reports that we're getting on the news:
1) protestors approached the RGHQ firing guns (as one tweet read, "why do 'peaceful' protestors bring guns?";
2) the police/military returned fire--but "into the air or at the feet" of those that were clashing, (from the news footage I'm seeing in makeshift medical centers, there are a lot of leg wounds -- no visible wounds in arms or torsos -- which makes this report seem credible);
3) morning prayer time rolled around and the clash came to an end while the police/military allowed the protestors to retreat to prayer but surrounded different areas;
4) at the end of prayer, apparently the police/military must have attempted to either disperse certain individuals or arrest some, and then the gun fights began.
ALL THAT TO SAY, the news appears to be reporting the last of these points which looks like an unprovoked attack without writing the events that led up to that moment.
- Political fallout - the Salafi Nour Party indicated that they would be withdrawing from all political negotiations with the interim government. This is a huge blow to the interim proceedings - this orthodox/conservative Muslim group was giving credibility to the interim government, and were wielding a lot of power in negotiations; however, they will not be a party of the military killing Muslims, so they are waiting to get more information before they continue. I don't think they will be throwing their support to the "pro-Morsi" groups, though those groups will see their lack of participation as a "win" and may further rally the protests.
- There are so many different news stories we're trying to watch and read at the moment - I'll update more in the next several hours. I wanted to get this update out there so that you would know 1) that we're aware of what is happening, 2) to help you get possibly more information than what mainstream media may be sharing, and 3) to encourage you to keep praying -- today is likely to be interesting...
Happy "Anniversary" to us - Living in Cairo now for 18 months today!
July 7, 10:00am
- One week ago today, the world witnessed history's largest political gathering on the streets and squares throughout Egypt - they gathered as a massive vote of "no confidence", challenging the legitimacy of President Morsi's leadership position and powers. Days later, Egypt's population was separated by jubilation and judgment. Now, one week to that day, the challenge of "legitimacy" will continue as the former "anti-Morsi" and former "pro-Morsi" groups will gather for different demonstrations to either support or denounce what has happened. The gatherings may just be the recipe for further clashes, violence, vandalism, bloodshed, and death. As we stated in yesterday's update, we see no value in the former "anti-Morsi/opposition" groups gathering again - their points have been made emphatically, the military has sided with them to assist, a growing majority of the world is beginning to accept the transition -- continuing to gather in the streets only provokes and provides a target for the swells of anger that continue from the other side. But, since both sides plan to gather today, the "Waiting Game" continues to see whether or not we can proceed peacefully, or fall into a destructive downward spiral.
- The ongoing clashes and violence since the transition of government have resulted in 30 deaths and more than 1100 injuries throughout Egypt. Again, Alexandria is worse than Cairo; and the medium size, Nile Valley communities between Alexandria and Cairo are worse than that. But, the most intense, militaristic style fighting continues to happen in the northern Sinai peninsula. The Sinai has been a difficult area to contain for many years as extremists and even terrorists have either lived or camped in the area; President Morsi's administration struggled with several groups whose attacks on checkpoints and military facilities threatened the stability of the buffer between Egypt and the Gaza Strip -- some were critical of Morsi for what was either labeled as a slow or soft response to these groups. Now, these groups seem to be pushing not just for the return of Morsi's legitimacy as President, but for an Islamist agenda. In a recent wave of attacks, a Coptic priest was among those killed adding to the sectarian tension that already exists in various areas throughout Egypt.
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| El-Baradei (image found through Google search) |
- On the opposite end of appointments, is the resignation of controversial Ministry of Culture, Alaa Abdel-Aziz. Since his appointment in May, he has been the center of controversy among the artistic community; he states that his resignation was a statement of unwillingness to support the "coup" against legitimate government.
- Meanwhile, we continue to live and serve in the midst of uncertainty and on a self-imposed "standby" status as we wait to see what will or will not develop. We made the decision to cancel the Cairo Christian Fellowship worship service again tonight to the proximity of several demonstrations; this is the second week in a row that we have had to cancel services--not for fear of safety in gathering, but the potential lack of safety in getting to or leaving the service. In conversations with several of the members, all appear to be well and are also watching and praying for an end to the strife around their country. Similarly, we have been able to communicate with a couple of the national church pastors who report that their congregants and the Church buildings are well; one of the national leader further affirmed that he is in contact with each pastor daily for a report of events in their communities--we praise God that he can say that all is well for these as well. This is of great relief to us as there are 4 congregations in the Alexandria area, one very near to the Sidi Gaber area that has a lot of demonstration activity; as well as congregations in Assuit and Menya where there has been a great deal of violent clashes. Continue to pray for the safety of these believers and the protection against the possibility of sectarian violence; pray for the pastors and their wisdom to lead and care for their congregations during these uncertain times.
- Finally, we'll close this update on a "funnier" note - I tweeted the link to this "over-the-top sarcastic, and overly simple" video that attempts to explain Egypt in less than 8 minutes -- I called it a western-dummies-guide to Egypt. Again, it is overly simplified and as a result of it's sarcasm, potentially offensive - but it cannot be any more offensive than the slanted dribble that seems to be coming out of so many western media outlets anyway...
- If there are intense or particularly interesting developments throughout today, we'll update them here -- otherwise, continue to follow us on Twitter as we update our situation or pass along credible retweets of reporters on the scenes throughout Egypt. and, as always, PRAY FOR EGYPT...
Tweet yesterday: "waiting for the other shoe to drop - or not - is agonizing"!
July 6, 9:00am
- once again, the sun is shining, the birds are singing, and the community around us is peaceful. It was
- there are so many conflicting reports, it's difficult to know what to quote and what to believe. I know that things looked bad from the various news media broadcasting from Tahrir Square last night, and violence of any sort is never good, but allow me to submit a few observations:
1) though "thousands" we're gathered in Tahrir Square last night, predominantly "pro-what-has-happened" groups who continue to gather in Tahrir basking in this revolutionary moment, only a few hundred (maybe) ran toward the 6th of October Bridge to fight. Though "thousands" of pro-legitimacy/"pro-democracy" (as they now want to be called by the world*), only a few hundred (maybe) were engaged in fighting. The reports of fighting included gun shots, 'Molotov' cocktails (actually lesser alcohol-based fire bombs as opposed to more deadly gas ones), and even rumors of "samurai swords". If you watch the videos, there are occasional Molotov cocktails, several fireworks shot at each other, a lot of sticks, and mostly rock throwing--I'm not denying the presence of "gunshots"--but in those clashes that went for several hours, in that proximity, if there were multiple guns and automatic rifles, we'd have a lot more than just 1 dead last night. Many of the "guns" and "birdshot" weapons that you hear about in media have been "homemade" weapons that offer poor accuracy and distance--in the hands of untrained individuals. It's a potent combination, for sure, but actual weapons would be much worse.
2) the youth / young men are the ones fighting - AND, this is nothing new. I don't know if this is a lack of education and opportunities for these guys or what, but there have always been hundreds of young men who appear at the first sign of trouble, ready to pick a side and get into any fight, with anyone - they're angry, hostile, undisciplined, and I think kind of see these events as "entertainment" and wounds from these clashes are bragging rights for being sincerely tough. Look at the history of incidents just since we've been here - soccer match violence and resulting demonstrations, the 9/11 movie fallout that led to gatherings outside the embassy, and nearly every disputed President/Parliament/Court decision in the last year and a half leads to some sort of violent clash--and who are the pictures of? Young guys. For the past few months, every Friday, these young guys have been gathering along the Corniche (the main Cairo road along the east bank of the Nile), causing trouble, blocking traffic, lighting tires in fire and more "shenanigans". Last night, they just had plenty more people to rile up and more to witness their craziness. If you watch this video clip (reportedly from the clashes in Alexandria yesterday), you see the two sides with young men who take turns, strutting out in the middle, then hurdling rocks -- until a couple guys jump in with their pellet guns and homemade birdshot pistols -- as a result, this 3o second video has a CONTENT WARNING due to violence...
Honestly, it really looks like a dodgeball game -- I think that some of the vacant properties near downtown need to be converted into dodgeball courts and create some leagues--you would have amazing levels of interest and a better means of recreation to channel all this bravado and testosterone! Though humorous, I think it's a legitimate idea. For perspective sake, consider this: in demonstrations throughout this last week, you've had millions--tens of millions--in the streets, and the problems/clashes/violence/vandalism have not come in the midst of the gatherings, but on the peripheries (or in different locations all together) where the young men are attacking or responding to attacks of other young men.
3) both sides, while claiming a "peaceful" desire, are continually guilty of ratcheting up emotions that will only lead to more violence. Seriously, why do the National Salvation Front & Tamarod need to "protect" what has happened? The military took their side and implemented an agreeable plan--there is no longer a need to occupy Tahrir and give the new opposition a place to focus their anger. Send everyone home; tell them to get back to work and be happy, ready to participate in the democratic process, which will hopefully restart after Ramadan. And the pro-Morsi/anti-what-happened group continually put up speakers that, though obviously offended and feeling disenfranchised, use terminology that implies an aggressive response--and the definitions of what they say can be spun to look "peaceful", but the context, the emotion, and what they don't say also contributes.- *Titles of the groups are beginning to change. Those who were "anti-Morsi" don't have to be against him any longer; they are not in the "opposition" role any longer--they are actually "pro-what-has-happened", but they need a better name than that! So far, we're reading "leftist and liberal" group, which isn't that great, either. Those formerly labeling themselves "pro-Morsi" are attempting to make better names that represent a bigger argument, and understandably so; they're now trying to use (& trying to get the media to use) "pro-legitimacy" or "pro-democracy". Even the former "Islamic Alliance" has changed their name to the "National Alliance to Support Legitimacy".
- though that new name is more friendly to the ears of the West, the US House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee released a favorable assessment to what has happened - read their report here - this was widely circulated on Facebook and Twitter, but it may have just strengthened the disdain of the pro-legitimacy groups to American leaders.
- These "hundreds of thousands" of pro-legitimacy have gathered and say they are going to camp out in the streets until their demands are met. But, I think those now in power think they'll just let them be for another 3-4 days and the start of Ramadan, in which Muslims observe a strict fast from dawn till dusk; if they continue to stay in the streets, the heat and the fast may motivate several to relocate. Nonetheless, here are their demands:
1) the reinstatement of President Morsi in accordance with constitution and law,
2) the dismissal of all unconstitutional decisions by the military when they "usurped power"
3) continue the constitution and start dialogue for any amendments
4) hold accountable the officials responsible repressive tactics
- Usually: Alexandria is worse than Cairo, countryside is worse than the cities - don't know why, but the coastal and 2nd largest city in Egypt always appears to have the greater frequency and intensity of violence during any dispute when compare to the larger capitol of Cairo. And, the Nile valley communities between Alexandria and Cairo are worse than both. Meanwhile, the various conflicting reports of sectarian violence, clashes between groups, and direct attacks on police stations or checkpoints is difficult to decipher, but all point to things being exceptionally dangerous in the outlying areas, particularly in the Sinai and south.
- So, what are we doing here? We are attempting to get in touch with pastors throughout the country; there are several in the north, and just as many in the south where greater atrocities have been reported. We hope to get good reports today, and we will attempt to pass them along to you. We have been in touch with the various CCF Kids families, & we will attempt to check in with various members of the CCF.
- Again, our community has been calm with no sights of disturbance--we recognize that this can change, and so we are watching and sharing information & security reports with the expat community. Though some of the expats we know have left, some have remained or are out of town on business and planning to return next week. We have friends at the American & British Embassies with whom we've been in contact. We are not taking any unnecessary risks, but we are attempting to prevent cabin fever, too. As we mentioned, we took advantage of the relative "ghost town" effect of Friday mornings to go see a movie. We went to church last night, walking through the neighborhoods to avoid driving through squares & by Mosques where there may be crowds. Titus & Grace were providing the skit for the children's program last night, & Grace brought a friend from church home with us to spend the night. We went across the street from the church to a private club for dinner--"American night" due to the 4th with a special menu--note: we won't do the special menu again and instead stick to the food we know they can cook :).
We are safe, and we are maintaining awareness; we pray the same is true for our brothers and sisters throughout this country. We are still learning how to serve them, and we especially need God's wisdom and grace at times like this. Thank you for your ongoing concern and prayers--you have blessed us!
Tweet yesterday: "waiting for the other shoe to drop - or not - is agonizing"!
July 5, 10:00am / 2:00pm (couldn't finish before we left*)
- First of all - thank you for your high level of interest and readership that is fueling your concern and prayers for us and the Egyptian people. This blog has averaged over 1000 readers/pageviews per month for the past 10 months; but, for July, we're already well over 800 readers, and we're averaging more than 12 readers per hour! Mindblowing and humbling.
- TGIF - This (may) Get Intense Fast - the Muslim Brotherhood held a press conference yesterday to condemn the "military coup" that had taken place. They agree with former-President Morsi's statement that he is still the rightful President of Egypt. Additionally, they want no part and will not accept any overture from the "insurgent authorities". They, and the Islamic Alliance, have called for marches and demonstrations on Friday (today) after prayers - they're stressing that these are to be peaceful. Whether or not these stay peaceful will depend on whether the young hooligans--who caused so much damage away from the places of anti-Morsi demonstrations in the last week--can be restrained and kept away from antagonizing the groups today. It is unlikely that their demonstrations will exceed the numbers viewed in last week's historic turnout--allow that to be the image, not the fighting. The absence of provocateurs will also allow the police and military to be separate from today's demonstrators -- the police/military who have aided this revolution/reformation are the new target of anger from the Islamic Alliance, so keeping their distance will help things remain peaceful. Early reports via Twitter this morning are that they are also planning a march to the Ministry of Defense -- if that does happen, some in the group may throw things and otherwise attempt to vandalize the building--hopefully the military and police can demonstrate some restraint if this happens.
- It's Friday, but Ramadan's coming -- this is the good news for Egypt right now. Ramadan, the Muslim holy month, begins either on July 9 or 10 (depending on the declaration of the lunar cycle) -- if we can get to that date peacefully, then maybe we can continue on peacefully.
*-* updating at 1:30pm - We have been going nearly stir crazy, suffering from "villa fever" behind closed doors watching the news and waiting. Last night, Titus said, "I thought we were going to see some summer movies each week." We replied that things have been a little crazy with this revolutionary/reformation build-up these past couple weekends of summer; but, this Friday morning could be possible before anything happens. We checked the web and "World War Z" was playing at the local theatre - Grace said, "are you kidding me? we're gonna go watch an end of the world movie at a time like this?!?" And, we got up this morning, went out before hardly anyone else was on the road, and watched Brad Pitt save the day with 3 Korean expats who had the same plan. (by the way, we liked the movie) Tonight, we'll attempt to get to the international church for worship - we'll probably walk so that we avoid the town squares where demonstrators may gather. And, if all is still calm, we'll go across the street for dinner at a local club, where it's gonna be "American night" because of the 4th of July. It's out plan -- I hope we can continue to make it more of a fun day for the kids. We haven't had to evacuate physically, but "fun" seems to have been evacuated from the summer break. To add to that insult, our vacation, planned to be at an Egyptian resort on the Red Sea, may have been cancelled - we're trying to figure out if that can be salvaged; of course, if we end up evacuated, we'll lose that plan anyway and have to do something in Germany or wherever we end up. Yet, for the loss of lives, destruction, suffering, uncertainty, and anger we see among the people of this wonderful country, a loss of "vacation" is a little inconvenience.
*-* Finally, for those of you getting your news and commentary from Western media, and to those of you who are hearing phrases like "military coup", "impatient Egyptian people", and "loss of democracy", let me offer you a balanced media perspective from a journalist from this country. Bassem Sabry has been following several story lines for years that have led up to the past week, as well as the story lines that will lead out of this past week. He chronicles several key things since last November, and towards the end, he laments where we are before his conclusion. "How Morsi and the Brotherhood Lost Egypt" - well worth the time to read.
*-* So what's happening now. It's not pretty in some parts of Egypt, though things remain calm and peaceful all around us. The afternoon prayers have ended and demonstrations/marches have begun. The most recent report from a reliable journalist source states "Army announces a state of emergency in South Sinai and Suez after Islamist gun attack in Arish: Al-Ahram" - the Sinai and rural areas have been difficult and violent since the ouster of Morsi. There are multiple sources referencing rocket-grenades in these areas of trouble where police stations are under attack.
*-* If you want to follow events moment by moment, here's some options:
- follow us on Twitter @ok2serve where we pass along tweets from several people and journalist that are covering events
- there's a live feed of one of the main pro-Morsi / Islamist Alliance demonstrations at this link - they have audio, but it's in Arabic - no commentary.
- Watch Al-Jazeera English - you can go to their website and click on "watch live" from anywhere in the world -- if things are happening in Cairo, they will have one of their news crews on the scene with live feed and translation. If they have their regular programming, then there's nothing urgent happening - if things get intense or particularly important, they'll cut in.*-* Finally, there's a lot of YouTube and other media floating around the internet - I saw some real whacko's that were offering prophetic/end-of-the-world stuff that made me laugh out loud - anyway, I share that with you as a caution and to ask you to check your sources before posting/forwarding that stuff - and just because it comes with "translation" doesn't mean that it's accurate or even if it's taken out of context. Contributing to the spread of such media contributes not only to panic, but also ignorance. For you Christians, please consider carefully the wisdom and application of this Scripture in the digital age--not just for the Egypt stories, but in all your internet usage:
"Do not let any unwholesome talk come out of your mouths,*
but only what is helpful for building other up according to their needs,
that it may benefit those who listen**."
(Ephesians 4:29, NIV)
[* or out of your "keyboards," "smartphones," or "social media"...]
{** or those who receive a "forward," "share," or "retweet"...}
PLEASE PRAY for EGYPT Today!!!
July 4, 12:00pm
- Happy Independence Day!?!?! It was a long night of celebrations and accusations last night. This morning, few people are stirring, the news is non-existent compared to the pace of the past 72 hours, and the Waiting Game continues.
- one video recap / update:
- Important news -- these are all largely "developing" stories was things are definitely in a state of constant movement...
- Egypt's Chief Justice Adly Mansour was sworn in as interim President, offering a brief speech. Imagine being this guy and looking at his to-do list! The following was the Military's transitional "roadmap" as summarized by Al Jazeera:
- Suspending the constitution
- Constitutional court to declare early presidential elections
- Chief Justice has presidential powers until elections
- A technocrat, national government will be formed
- Securing and guaranteeing freedom of expression
- All necessary measures will be taken to empower youth
- Army appeals to Egyptians to steer away from violence
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| you can follow the progress on these steps at the Morsitimer.com--which was previously set up to countdown the military's 48-hour deadline. |
- Reportedly, President Morsi and a chief aid/spokesperson Gehad el-Hadad are under house arrest on the charges of "inciting violence" - President Morsi, after the military's announcement, refused their "roadmap," issuing a contrary statement against the "coup"; he further asked his supporters and all Egyptians not to not stand for this, but to do so peacefully, though his rhetoric was less than peaceful. The aid, el-Haddad made several Twitter posts stating that the pro-Morsi demonstration in Nasr City was under attack by the military -- tweets that were immediately refuted by witnesses at the event and the two independent live feed cameras on the area. Though there are some reports saying that they are being held at an undisclosed location, there is this report claiming that they are (ironically) being held at the same prison as Mubarak and his sons. Recently, an arrest warrant had been issued on the same charges for MB Supreme Guide and deputy/former Presidential candidate al-Shater. Prior to the military ouster of Morsi last night, an appeals court in Egypt decided a case against his Prime Minister Qandil leading to his removal from office and sentencing him to a year in prison.
- Amazingly, things progressed peacefully through the evening in Cairo. Elsewhere, however, things were seeing tensions spill out between celebrating groups and angered groups. Early reports are that 10 people died throughout the country and hundreds more were injured -- these largely took place in smaller communities, with only 3 from Alexandria. Again, this is a miracle when you consider millions upon millions chaotically gathered in Cairo and Alexandria.
- It took awhile, compared to how fast things were circulating, but President Obama did finally make a statement, and when he did (as this CNN article points out), what he didn't say was as important as what he did say. He didn't use the word "coup" - such a declaration would mean the suspension of US Aid to Egypt, and could further embolden the pro-Morsi groups as well as anger the anti-groups who are now a part of the new shared power structure. I'm sure it was a word-smithing tightrope to create that statement!
As always, thank you for your ongoing concern and prayers - continue to Pray for Egypt...
- However, as some of you know and have contacted us in concern, the US State Department issued a travel warning against coming into Egypt and encouraging their citizens to depart. Honestly, we thought this was a bit premature, particularly without a violent response within Cairo; but as we read the statement further it says, "if you wish to depart...", which may imply some sense of choice in the matter. The statement does not direct a coordinated movement of citizens out of the country, but leaves the planning up to its citizens. We continue to monitor events and talk with supervisors and our organization, as well as the Egyptians we are serving. As stated before, the next several hours and days are critical to revealing what will happen in this country and whether or not we will be watching what unfolds from here in Egypt or elsewhere.
July 3, 9:30pm
- As many of you have now heard, or heard from yourself through the live broadcast...
But it also reminded me of this image that we also screen captured:
Morsy's Palm Sunday?
In that post, I wrote:
"The celebrations today turn to work quickly tomorrow as Morsy will have to try to regain power from the SCAF who have limited Presidential power in the absence of a Constitution and a Parliament. There will be an even greater amount of work required in appeasing the socialist and revolutionary groups who supported this victory rather than see the "remnant" elected--the concessions that may or may have not been made officially will now have to be actualized or risk these revolutionary groups to begin gathering in Tahrir against the newly elected President. The crowds that have been impatient for the election results have been impatient for change for longer--millions are still living in severe poverty, economic conditions are well past declining, tourism is non-existent, and the world watches with skepticism at this budding-democracy.
It's much like Palm Sunday in that sense--the cheering, chanting crowds today may be crying out "crucify" within weeks."
Prophetic? NO - that writing on the wall was there for everyone to see, but now the Egyptian people have ousted another leader.
And, guess what? We're right back to where we've been nearly every morning and evening for the past week:
Now What?!?!?
Now, the Chief Justice of the High Constitutional Court will take the reigns of the country; Egypt will not be led by the military, so this was at the very least, "a military-assisted coup." By the way, Chief Justice Adly Mansour, 68. took the job just a few days ago!
Now the Constitution is suspended -- amendments, perhaps a whole new draft, has to be created and approved.
Now Egypt still needs a Parliament (lower house) and a Shura Council (higher house); Presidential elections will have to be organized and a whole new round of politicking and finger pointing will likely begin.
Now, poverty still exists; shortages still exist; the Pound is terribly devalued and the foreign reserves still have low balances; Egypt still owes more than $5 billion for gas imports; and traffic will still be a mess. There's a lot to do in the midst of an impatient and fractured country.
Now, the praying is not over -- in fact, our prayers have to become all the more intense.
Now these Pro-Morsi or Pro-"legitimacy" groups are angered. The Al Jazeera correspondent on the scene at the Pro-Morsi rally in Nasr City stated that the moment the crowd heard that the Constitution had been suspended and that this "coup" was taking place, the leader on stage led a responsive oath to pledge to God with their lives not to let this action stand. Reportedly, the Muslim Brotherhood satellite broadcast channel went "dark", as it was also reported that other Islamic channels also went dark -- perhaps as a preemptive move by the military to keep messages of rage from being spread. But these Pro-legitimacy groups have grassroots networks, too. They don't need specialized television stations to fire them up. They, by their estimation, have just seen legitimate political action and democratic decisions trumped by people on the streets -- will they now take to the streets to "take back" the power and position that has been lost?
Now, that threat of violence is the legitimate and expected fear throughout the media and others. Early reports are that violent clashes have begun in a a few of the smaller communities throughout Egypt. How the military, police, and this new/temporary leadership respond to these clashes - and how long it takes to put an end to them - will determine the present future stability of Egypt.
Now, we have lots of questions: will the National Salvation Front continue to work together or fracture back to their dozen or so groups? Will the Salafi parties move from the 2nd most dominant political party to the first (keeping in mind they are more religiously conservative than the MB)? What happens to the MB now--what happens to Morsi?? Lack of credibility along with high profiles will make their present future difficult!
And Now--barring major violent clashes that put us back on the edge of our seat--now it's time to rest!
It's been quite a week -- thanks for sticking with us, and please, continue to
PRAY FOR EGYPT!
July 3, 11:00am - 6 hours from Armed Forces Deadline
- Last night, I began the update with two bullets that read, "Sadly, we just listened to President Morsi..." and "...he was defiant." In the late hours of the night, which classify as the early hours of the morning, President Morsi finally broke silence with the Egyptian people (though there were "tweets" from his office) and addressed the people for the first time since the historic gatherings from June 29-July 2; and most importantly, it was the first address to the nation since the military issued their 48-hour deadline to end the political standoff. In light of the growing tensions on the streets, the increase in vandalism and hoodlum activity away from the largely peaceful gatherings by both sides in Cairo, and yet the increasing reports of violent, even deadly, clashes between groups in other cities and governorates - in those late hours last night I expected more than what all news outlets seem to be classifying as "defiance." As we listened, we did not hear anything new a part from the "plan" he offered in a nearly 3 hour long speech in the late hours last Wednesday night; as we have rested and returned to reading the reports, there apparently were "some concessions" as outlined by this Ahram Online article:
1. As he discussed in his Wednesday speech, he said that he was in dialogue with opposition - not sure who that is as all the groups leading the protests on the streets claim to be denying any meetings with the President until he meets their demands. Sincere dialogue had been an aim of the opposition groups months ago, and both sides have said that neither would come to the table - so this "concession" is still a mystery.
2. He said that he is in favor of moving quickly to Parliamentary elections - referencing a plan handed to him awhile ago by an "opposition" group, which one Tweet said was the National Salvation Front. Parliamentary elections have been a fleeting political mirage in the past year as the previous Parliament was disqualified by Judicial order, and than the courts have continually found fault with election laws, endlessly postponing the representative body that would have the means to keep the President in check. Two notes: a) Tamarod organizers have asked, "in the absence of a representative Parliament to keep the President in check, who have even the power to remove the President, why cannot that power fall to the people?" and, b) sadly, NSF opposition leaders have stated that President's concessions to even some of their demands at this stage are too little, too late - so while this may be the President giving serious consideration to an opposition idea, they will not be happy.
3. President Morsi said that he would form a committee to review possible Constitution amendments - again, something stated in last Wednesday's speech. The possibility of amending the Constitution is his administration's idea to keeping the embattled, controversial document without losing it all together. For more on the Constitution controversies, see these previous posts: Constitution, Copts, & other Egypt News , Peace For You, Protests For Us UPDATED , Defusing or Fueling Controversy , New Constitution Now Rests On Egyptians' Decision , Egyptians' Constitution Vote on December 15 , ContRAdictIOn, Egypt , and the other posts up to December 22 -- from mid-November to the New Year, this was big news and causing a lot of controversy in Egypt, all of which underscores what you see happening now.
4. resolving disagreements over the Prosectuor General - a hold over from the Mubarak era who was fired publicly and also with much debate, by President Morsi
5. and, involving youth in the government at different levels - also, a point made in his speech last Wednesday
6. The Ahram Online article also states working through disagreements with the media as a positive concession in last night's address, but (as we listed in last night's update) this sounded more like a plan to be able to censor the media in the future to prevent any statements and programs that would say things that could interfere in the rebuilding of Egypt. I have not been able to find any further commentary on this point to help understand this "media ethics" committee or amendment, because there is obviously so much more pressing news...
- There were three resulting responses from this speech:
- Violence - even before the President was speaking, clashes were beginning to brew in various areas, but by the time he was done speaking a "street war" was in full swing at the Cairo University, in Giza (west bank of the Nile River), complete with automatic weapons. The University was a gathering point for demonstrations, mostly in favor of President Morsi - pro-legitimacy. There are conflicting reports and interviews of witnesses of who started what, who was attacking who -- what we do know is that the escalation of events led to 16 dead and at least 200 injured. Such violence is likely to continue until resolution - and any path of resolution projects to more violence. This CNN video clip obtained by someone likely recording from their phone, shows some of the events at Cairo University - at 12 or 13 seconds into the clip, you see a man step up above the crowd with an automatic rifle - which raises a couple of points, 1) who brings an automatic rifle to a "peaceful" demonstration, 2) there are a lot of weapons in Egypt (some say via Sudan, others say as a part of black market route to get weapons into or to Libya or Syria). Oh, this just in (11:53 pm) and the Health Ministry just updated the number dead to 23, and 600 injured at Cairo University last night.
- Tamarod - the "rebel" campaign organizers had set a deadline for yesterday as a part of their campaign for June 30 - they wanted the President to step down according to the "will of the people" so that a transitional period could begin toward early elections. The Tamarod organizers, in response to President Morsi's speech, asked for the military guard to arrest him. I think the military will wait on their own deadline, no matter how many people have expressed favor of the Tamarod organizers.
- and, the Military - they were reportedly, through their Facebook page, not happy with the President's late night speech (on a side note, there's a lot of official statements being released by Facebook or Twitter - crazy). In President Morsi's speech, in countless references to his "legitimacy", he stated that he would defend his "legitimacy with his blood" if necessary. The Military made a similar statement, "We swear to God that we will sacrifice even our blood for Egypt and its people, to defend them against any terrorist, radical or fool."
So, is that the point that we've to which we've come - the shedding of blood?- Wait, here's another response to President Morsi's speech last night: apparently, one of the Brotherhood's main allies, Al Gamaa Al Islamiya urges early Presidential elections - at least that's what that article reports -- but the latest Twitter feeds from reporters we follow in the area say that the group still support the legitimacy of the President but are encouraging this as an option for consideration. There's possibly some waffling in the pro-legitimacy camp as tensions and violence continue to rise in these last hours of the deadline.
- So, some of the western media, like this CNN editorial "Give Morsy a chance to fix this" wonder why the Egyptian people are attempting to oust their president after just one year in office, further wondering why they would abandon the democratic process all together. Opponents like those in the National Salvation Front argue that though they went into the last year and a half seeking a democracy, they feel that the leadership of President Morsi has kept them from that, citing the break of trust in an agreement with revolutionaries that led to President Morsi receiving the close (see "How to Win an Election and Lose a Presidency") but majority vote; the lack of Parliament and respect for the judiciary that allows for checks and balances; and the lack of participation offered to opposing views while also the recent increase in charges filed against media and bloggers who express contrary opinions.
- BUT, the best way to understand all of this may be in understanding the statements made in this editorial titled, "It's the Egyptian Identity, Stupid" - in which the author argues that the emotional and volatile response of the people is not due to political or economic decisions and losses in the last year, but the loss of identity and culture that has been attacked by the Brotherhoodization (or Akhwwana) of Egypt. For those of us in church ministry, this POSSIBLE argument/rationale should not be a difficult concept to grasp - any time a new pastor attempts changes to a congregation that has existed for decades, an emotional/volatile response often occurs that is not logical - why? Because you're messing with their identity, their culture, their ethos. To some extent, based on some of the Egyptians we've met and interacted, the rhetoric and emotions that have been expressed do mirror those who've struggled with a new pastor.
- So, I began writing this update at 11:00 am - it's now 12:30 pm, and the news keeps coming:
- reports of military holding a crisis meeting
-reports of the Turkish ambassador family and 22 embassy staff leaving Egypt
- British embassy discouraging travel to Egypt (as American Embassy previously did), but also urging citizens currently in the country to examine rationale for being in the country - no new update from the American Embassy.- We will update this post if anything major happens before 5:00 pm -- otherwise, all updates until that deadline will be via Twitter as we pass along news from the various reporters we follow. This is the day, and these are the hours to PRAY FOR EGYPT...
July 3, 12:30am
- Sadly, we just listened to President Morsi, in yet another late night press conference, speak for over an hour without really anything new to say: 1) He was elected democratically; 2) Constitution, "great" constitution, was completed quickly and approved by 64%*; 3) through this legitimacy, he has sworn to uphold the Constitution, and 4) no one can keep me from that duty. (*64% of those who voted -- many boycotted the vote after it was quickly ratified due to President Morsi giving himself sweeping powers last November, a major source of frustration and criticism from the opposition groups.")
- Basically, he was defiant. No concessions, and really no new plan a part from items from his 3 hour speech a week ago - except, some sort of plan for a "media ethics" committee or amendment that will help media to recognize their responsibility to building the country, not tear it down. Again, this was the new segment in the midst of the same action steps he proposed last Wednesday, and this new element sounds like a means of censoring the media.
- meanwhile, up to and during his speech, Twitter was reporting escalating violence at a few spots in Cairo, listeners in disbelief from the Anti-Morsi groups, and emboldened listeners at the Pro-Morsi groups.
- time for some sleep -- it could be a long, difficult, day tomorrow -- it definitely has the potential to be historic...
July 2, 8:30pm
- For the most part today, it was peaceful from what we could see and hear from Cairo - there have been some reports of clashes largely in smaller communities throughout the country - but here in Cairo, people were mostly gathering in their various "camps" of support. That's in past tense because current Tweet reports are beginning to share that groups are moving closer together in Cairo and that tensions are escalating, even some beginnings of clashes.
- Reuter's quotes source with military's proposed Roadmap - which includes a dismissal of both the Parliament and the Constitution, as well as setting up a diverse interim council to amend a Constitution before Presidential elections could be established - but, the military says this is not a planned coup!
- Meanwhile, Al Jazeera English news anchors just referred to a Muslim Brotherhood official who said they were ready to take on the military for the sake of the Presidency. This sentiment has been shared in many ways from what we have seen in various stories like this one, "Brotherhood leader calls for 'martyrdom' to stop Egypt coup".
- This, again, raises the question, "What if the deadline passes and President Morsi and his administration refuse to step aside - what's the "roadmap' for that scenario?" This story references that such scenarios have do not usually turn out well, "Certainly the pattern of removing an elected institution with support on the ground by a mix of street mobilization and army intervention does not lead to positive outcomes. Military dictatorships, civil wars, or both are usually the result. Spain in 1936, Iran in 1953, Chile in 1973, Turkey in 1980, Sudan in 1989, Algeria in 1992 and Tajikistan in 1992 highlight the processes quite well." from "What happens if President Mursi is removed?"
- Ahram Online has resumed their updating live blog - here's a list of key events reported in the blog's 19:00 update:
- Wonder what former Egypt strongman Mubark is thinking with Morsi getting larger uprisings than he did 2.5 years ago? This article reports "Ousted Mubarak says Mursi should resign to 'save lives'" - the irony in that headline is amazing!Key events today so far:
- The 30 June Front, a coalition of a number of key opposition groups, have put forward Mohamed ElBaradei as a spokesman, while the cabinet has selected Prime Minister Hisham Qandil. President Morsi, Qandil and armed forces head Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi reportedly met today.
- Violent clashes since Monday in a number of governorates have led to 152 injuries.
- A Cairo appeal court on Tuesday morning upheld a lower court's decision to dismiss prosecutor-general Talaat Abdullah, appointed by President Morsi, although it is unclear whether the former prosecutor-general, Abdel-Meguid Mahmoud, will take up the position.
- The number of ministerial resignations is up to 6, with the resignation of foreign minister Mohamed Kamal Amr, a career diplomat who was originally appointed in 2011 under military council rule. Two presidential spokesmen also resigned.
- Egypt's Coptic Orthodox Pope Tawadros II issues a statement praising the anti-Morsi Rebel campaign which spearheaded the weekend's protests.
- The April 6 Youth Movement, a key revolutionary group, called on President Morsi to dissolve the Islamist-dominated Shura Council, freeze the constitution and hand over power to the head of the High Constitutional Court who would then set the date for presidential elections within three months.
- The Egyptian stock market reacted very positively, climbing 5 percent on Tuesday.
- The Cairo Embassy page includes this link, "Statement from the White House" to President Morsi in a phone call, which include, "President Obama encouraged President Morsy to take steps to show that he is responsive to their concerns, and underscored that the current crisis can only be resolved through a political process."
- The National Salvation Front, the large umbrella organization of opposition political parties, gave their approval of the Military's "Roadmap" plan - of course, several Pro-Morsi/legitimacy parties have expressed their disapproval as well.
- this is it for now - we continue to watch and wait to see what may or may not happen in the next few hours before we try to get some sleep for the big day tomorrow. One last thing - thank you all for your overwhelming and consistent outpouring of support and prayers for the Egyptian people and our family. We are blessed by your concerns and prayers. We are all well, and at peace.
Original post: High Stakes Waiting Game, morning July 2
Yesterday was an unprecedented, unending game of word-smithing and politicking that has Egypt on the brink of--who knows what?!?
(catch up on a summary of yesterday's events from our post "What a Day!")
And here's a BBC video that outlines a bit of that update and then what happened once we went to bed after 1:00 am and apparently just before President Morsi's statement that came nearer to 1:30am AND on the President's Facebook page (not a televised broadcast)!
As mentioned, the President makes his statement in either the latest hours of the night or the earliest hours of the morning--and though public, in an obscure way (no matter how popular Facebook is). His mood is obviously defiant - just as the military didn't mention President Morsi's name in their statement, President Morsi doesn't reference the 48-hour deadline. A back-and-forth, tit-for-tat, failure of either side to really acknowledge one another's authority.
Yet, the military / Armed Forces have clearly sided with the people because though they didn't acknowledge the Presidency, they intentionally acknowledged the people by making several sweeps above the swelling Tahrir Square crowds in military helicopters dangling flags -- "and the crowd goes wild!"
Meanwhile, though the President didn't acknowledge the deadline, he said that the AF statement was "confusing" and alluded to the AF's "roadmap" when he said that he was continuing to work on his own plan for reconciliation through "dialogue". Though, I'm not sure with whom he is dialoguing, because there have been no reports of any opposition figures willing to talk with the President; in fact, the support of the military has emboldened the opposition to say that anything less than stepping aside would be unacceptable.
The President is not without support. The ongoing emergency meeting of the Muslim Brotherhood and members of the Islamic Alliance parties in support of his legitimacy made their late night/early morning statements by television, 1) rejecting the military's deadline, 2) calling for supporters to fill the streets and squares of Egypt to demonstrate their perceived majority opinion, and 3) to stage their own sit-ins to counter that of the Tamarod and opposition groups until the legitimacy of the Presidency is secure.
However, not all Islamic parties are marching to this tune. The Salafi Nour and Call Parties made statements last night calling for early elections. They claim that they respect and support the legitimacy of the Presidency, but the only way forward to prevent a civil war would be agreement to early elections. Commentators in the last week or so, after these parties refused to participate in either sides' demonstrations, wondered whether or not this was the Salafi's distancing themselves from the Brotherhood in a "high road" effort to maintain their status as the 2nd largest voting block while the Brotherhood's base seemed to be crumbling. Based on their previous voting records over the past year, they may stand the most to gain, particularly if the opposition groups fail to rally around 1 candidate for President or a few candidates for Parliament as opposed to the splintering that happened in the first round of elections.
and once again, we're in the same place we were Monday morning after the historic demonstrations,
Now What???
Now we're in waiting game - a high stakes waiting game.
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| A Tale of Two Protests: the Armed Forces statement created euphoria in Tahrir (right) and enraged the pro-legitimcay demonstration (left). |
The Pro-Morsi/legitimacy/Islamic-Project groups will be taking to the streets today to express and demonstrate that they are the majority and that the result of the ballot-box still stands.
The Anti-Morsi/Tamarod/Opposition groups will be taking to the streets for their planned "Perseverance March" to the Presidential Palace today at 5:00 pm in accordance with the deadline set by the Tamarod organizers prior to the Armed Forces statement.
The two sides are likely to meet - then what? Both have advocated "non-violence", but the rhetoric has been ratcheted up, especially in the wake of deaths, injuries, and property damage on both sides, from various gatherings and clashes a part from demonstrations, from Alexandria to Assuit and everywhere in between. Any further incident can create a domino effect.
Now we wait until the expiration of the Armed Forces 48-hour deadline, and though they've said they are not intending a military coup, how do they enforce what they said with a defiant President and administration? This forms the new, and deadly Catch-22:
- on one hand, if they back up their words, the Pro-Morsi groups will likely strike back -- even if it's only part of them following the statements by some leaders as "over our dead bodies"; and if the military does forcefully back that up, and even in self-defense see Pro-Morsi supporters die, this will only enrage a very adamant group.
- on the other hand, if they back down and don't hold President Morsi to the 48 hour deadline and introduce their road map, have they just further empowered the Pro-Morsi groups, and will they in turn become hostile to a now defenseless (that is, military-less) opposition. Will a defiant President Morsi see that he's "won" and further point fingers at opposition leaders as the enemies?
The implications of what happens while we wait for the deadline on July 3, and what may happen at the time of that deadline create an atmosphere of uncertainty and tension.
We will update this post as news unfolds until we see where this is going...
PRAY FOR EGYPT!
Good description of the current events in Egypt... but one advice... do not rely entirely on the news from Al Jazeera and CNN... both very biased. There is the BBC who tries to be accurate, Euronews, Fox News, and other European Channels which might give you a better picture of the events.
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