Day After Elections Report: Morsy Versus Shafiq?

Morsy

Though official results are expected to be announced ahead of schedule on Sunday or Monday, the reports coming in indicate the likelihood of a run-off election for June 16-17.  Mohamed Morsy, the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party’s candidate, seems to be in the top 3 in all cities reporting.  This most likely ensures that he will be one of the two in an upcoming runoff election.

Morsy, self-proclaimed as “the only true Islamist in the race,” gained a lot of ground in the last week after leading the results of international absentee ballots.  This moved him from an after-thought to the top contender.  His surge in favor led to more attention to his words in recent rallies, which called for the implementation of Sharia law and reviewing the 1979 treaty with Israel.  

The presence of three non-Islamist candidates in this first round of elections appears to have not only split the vote, but maybe even ruined their chances of a victory in this first election.  Even if only 2 of Moussa, Shafiq, or Sabbahi were running, they would have fared better in the polls.  With all 3 in the running, cities where any of the 3 won did not do so by a large margin, and in many instances Morsy seems to have won the vote count with 2 of the non-Islamists falling in 2nd and 3rd.  For example, a noon report of 20 governorates reporting, states that Morsy held 28% of those votes; Shafiq followed with 21%, Sabbahi was in third with 20%, and Moussa was fourth with 12%.  Imagine if there were only 1 or 2 of the non-Islamist candidates.

Shafiq

Instead, according to Egypt Independent early this morning, “A Muslim Brotherhood official told Reuters this morning that Morsy will enter a run-off vote next month with Shafiq.  ‘It is clear that the run-off will be between Mohamed Morsy and Ahmed Shafiq,’ the official told Reuters. The group's governing body was meeting to determine campaign strategy for the run-off, scheduled for June 16 and 17, he said.  The official said that with votes counted from about 12,800 of the roughly 13,100 polling stations, Morsy had 25 percent, Shafiq 23 percent, Abouel Fotouh had 20 percent and Sabbahi 19 percent.  Reuters pointed out that official results are not due to be announced until next week...”.

Ahmed Shafiq, the former Mubarak appointed Prime Minister, may be the least likely to pull out a victory from the 3 non-Islamist candidates because of his ties in the previous Mubarak regime.  The Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party attempted to ban such candidates through a Parliamentary motion.  Shafiq had shoes thrown at him after casting his vote on Wednesday, and had to cancel part of his last campaign trip due to such outbursts at one engagement.  If Shafiq’s mere participation in democratic process creates such riotous behavior, imagine what a victory would create!?!?

Moussa

Moussa, though a former spy-chief under Mubarak, had begun to distance himself prior to the revolution; however, many revolutionary youth movements still see him very much a part of the old-regime.  Sabbahi’s surge in popularity in the past couple weeks seems to have overtaken Moussa’s place as one of the top two contenders when just a few weeks ago when nearly everyone reported a 2-man race between he and Abouel Fotouh.  Meanwhile, Fotouh seems to have fallen dramatically under Morsy’s recent surge.

Sabbahi

Hamdeen Sabbahi may have just gained too little momentum too late--but the momentum he gained may have been too much for the hopes of a non-Islamic president by preventing either Shafiq or Moussa from faring more favorably in this first election.  Sabbahi’s excellent returns, particularly in Alexandria and along the Red Sea, may indicate that he would have been the better non-Islamist candidate to make a run for the Presidency.  His growth in popularity in this past week has trended far more favorably nationally than anyone could have expected.

Fotouh

It's hard to understand how Fotouh and Moussa could move so quickly from leading the headlines heading into this month to the bottom of the list.  Apparently, the diversity of opinion is far stronger across the nation than the  opinion polls in the population centers.  Not only was Fotouh overestimated in terms of Islamic population favor, so was Moussa's favor overestimated among those looking at non-Islamic candidates.  So much for the 2-man race that everyone anticipated after the Presidential Election Commission denied the candidacy of 10 hopefuls, including the Muslim Brotherhood's first candidate (Shater) and the Salafi candidate (Ismail).

The wildcard in the runoff election may very well be the Salafi vote.  Though they are the more fundamental of the Islamic population, the Salafis have been on the outs with the Muslim Brotherhood and have resented the Brotherhood's rise in power, as well as their superior attitude that has been repeatedly demonstrated against the Salafi political overtures.  Now, with the main Islamic candidate in a runoff coming directly from the Brotherhood, will the Salafi leaders get in the correct religious line, or will they seek to undermine the Brotherhood's hopes with a surprise switch in support to the rival?  If that rival is indeed Shafiq, such a rebellious switch would not be likely since Shafiq has such strong ties to the previous Mubarak regime.  If, hypothetically, Sabbahi has a swell of returns that catapult his dark-horse into the spotlight, then the Salafi's may be tempted.

Meanwhile, military and police forces are reported to be gathering near institutions and large city squares in case of riots by those objecting election results.  This further seems to indicate that either Shafiq or Moussa are going to be in the runoff election.  As previously reported in the past two blog posts, many youth revolutionary movements, as well as several Islamic groups, are strongly opposed to either Shafiq or Moussa being in the runoff election.  

Please, continue to pray for Egypt...