Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Egypt Election: Officially Unsatisfactory to Many




As soon as the election results were confirmed, a couple hundred protestors were in Tahrir Square.  Within hours, a few hundred became nearly a thousand and half the group split off to go to the nearby campaign office of Ahmed Shafiq (one of the runoff candidates) and began to ransack the office, throwing out files and computers in the streets, before setting the garage of the building on fire.  While authorities put out the blaze before too much damage was done, many protestors continued to watch and chant against the candidacy of the former Mubarak era Prime Minister.

Meanwhile, protestors continued to grow in Tahrir Square--not just against Shafiq, but also against the other candidate.  The Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party saw their "spare tire" also advance to the runoff election.  American educated Dr. Mohamed Morsy was not the party's first choice, but their well-mobilized support base gave enough votes to help the candidate not only advance, but also to lead all candidates in the May 22-23 election.

Now its time for the runoff between Shafiq and Morsy on June 16 and 17.

Now its time to make a choice between two candidates that few are happy about.

Welcome to democracy.

Shafiq: why not and why?
Shafiq represents the old Mubarak regime; his appointment to Prime Minister was one of Mubarak's last official acts of power during the revolution last year.  As an Air Force officer, he also has strong ties to the military that have not been as favorably viewed during this long interim government led by the military known as SCAF (Supreme Council of the Armed Forces).  So, to have a revolution more than a year ago and end up with one of the former government leaders as a choice for the new President is appalling--some even saying blasphemous to the blood of the revolution's martyrs.  Shafiq has been obstinately opposed throughout this new democratic process.

Yet, here he is, a candidate for the Presidency--why?  Well, the love of the military in Egypt is still strong; those supporting the military feel that they are not government puppets (they are not allowed to vote), and they are the only ones who can really protect the country.  Shafiq was the big winner in areas where security is a concern--even if they mostly conservative Muslim provinces.  Also, much to the dismay of the young revolutionaries, there are a number of older and educated Egyptians that do not feel that the revolution has led to any good.  In fact, there are many that even though  they participated or who were pro-revolution a year and half ago, are now wondering whether or not the country is any better.  The economy is way down, unemployment is way up, tourism is nearly nonexistent, international relations are deteriorating, etc. -- for those that have been worrying about this, perhaps someone who represents what was may be the best choice.

Morsy: why not and why?
The big why not is simply in his representation of the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party.  This party dominates the recently elected Parliament, and many feel that the Parliament has not accomplished anything in their first few months of power; to be fair, who could?  There is no President, no constitution, and the leadership of the country is really under the temporary rule of the military.  The Muslim Brotherhood, by virtue of their overwhelming presence in the Parliament, were also the dominant presence on the Constituent Committee charged with drafting the new Constitution--that committee had to be disbanded due to infighting and so many resigning with accusations that the Brotherhood was dominating the discussions and decisions.  Also working against Morsy is the reversal of the Brotherhood's initial statements that they would not field a candidate for President--when they changed their mind, many Egyptians cried "foul".  It was even suggested during the initial returns of election results that Morsy and the Brotherhood should honor this commitment not to run for the Presidency and therefore withdraw before the results became official so that Shafiq would have to run against the leading Revolutionary candidate Hamdeeen Sabahi.  Of course, with the smell of potential victory and power, the Freedom and Justice Party scoffed at this idea.

The Brotherhood have had a strong, well-organized political arm for years, so they seemed to have the tools necessary to mobilize voters to get their candidate into this round.  The Brotherhood knows that if they were running against one of the Revolutionary candidates, they would be facing an uphill battle; but, the failure of the revolutionary candidates to come together split the vote so that Morsy could be in this position.  The Brotherhood recognizes their polarizing affect, and have been proactively attempting to build bridges and offer appointments in a new government to former political rivals in an effort to garner enough support to get Morsy elected to the Presidency; however, they have not found any former candidate or group willing to join their concession efforts.

Their biggest ally has now come out of the former embittered rival, the Salafi Nour Party.  The Nour Party bumpy history;  the Nour Party has reached out to the Brotherhood repeatedly, only to be rejected and treated as "second-rate".  When both the Nour Party and the Brotherhood had their initial candidates disqualified, the Nour Party attempted to work with the Brotherhood so not to split the Islamic vote; however, they were rejected by the Brotherhood and had to find their own candidate to back.  But now, the Nour Party has officially said, "it's a matter of religion, not politics", and so, they will be backing Morsy and the "Islam is the Answer" platform that the Brotherhood have been promoting all along.


On the outside of these political decisions, it's been interesting to observe.  The revolutionaries have cried out for democracy, but within a democracy all opinions are heard and the majority rules--yet, the majority has chosen candidates that they do not want to accept.  Some have said, as in the video, let Parliament make a law banning former regime officials and their ideals so they can't be permitted.  Such outcries are no longer cries for democracy, but censorship.  You don't have to agree with the Brotherhood, but you have to admire what they've done--in a new democracy, they understood majority rules and the need to build bridges--they built just enough to get through the first round, and they're hoping to do so again and get into the Presidency.  The strong support for Shafiq across Egypt further indicates that there is quite a diversity of opinion when it comes to what's best for Egypt's future.

As protestors continue to gather in Tahrir yet again, the present is uncertain.  The gathering mobs are angry and confused.  Only 46% of Egypt's population voted in the first election; now with a difficult choice, not as many are expected to vote in the final election in just over 3 weeks.  If such a minority participate and elect one of these polarizing figures to be Egypt's next President--what will the unhappy majority do?

Continue to pray for Egypt...


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