We are days away from the Presidential Runoff Election scheduled for this Saturday and Sunday, June 16-17, between Shafiq and Morsy.
Protestors continue to gather in Tahrir Square awaiting the two legal challenge to Shafiq's candidacy. The Political Isolation Law is pending before the Egyptian Supreme Court on the ground of Constitutionality; the law stated that those former leaders of the Mubarak regime were to be forbidden from seeking political office in the future. If rejected, Shafiq will remain in the election, but the outcry will likely be quite demonstrative. If the law is upheld, Shafiq's supporters may not be as demonstrative because they know they are a minority compared to the Islamists and the revolutionary groups who will be cheering for what will be another perceived victory in the ongoing revolution.
The second case against Shafiq relates to his brief tenure as Prime Minister in the final days of the Mubarak regime during last year's revolution. During that time, men riding camels charged through the crowds gathered in Tahrir causing injury and stirring up other trouble. The argument has been that these men acted on government orders, and therefore Shafiq is responsible for this. The criminal charges are before a court that is preparing to rule on this evidence as well. Either case have the potential of removing Shafiq from the runoff election and both cases are expecting decisions within the next couple days.
Meanwhile, Morsy is still not exactly the "people's favorite" heading into the election. There have been demands made by secular and revolutionary candidates that will not agree to vote for him as the Muslim Brotherhood candidate, regardless of their hatred for Shafiq and the old regime, until he and the MB agree to their demands. Fearing low voter turn out and another potential revolutionary uprising, the MB has formed a special committee to examine the demands and their leaders are attempting to appeal to Egyptians to please vote. The MB has recently attempted to appeal to Copts to vote for Morsy instead of the old regime's candidate (Shafiq) and the history of sectarian division that the MB say Shafiq represents.
Al Jazeera World offers an interesting documentary on the history of the Muslim Brotherhood and their opposition to the Mubarak regime through the past several decades. I cannot embed the video, but we can offer this link: The Brotherhood and Mubarak - Al Jazeera World - Al Jazeera English. The Brotherhood may have Morsy defeat the former regime candidate in the upcoming election, but their popularity appears to be waning. The main Islamist party in the Parliament continues to find objection by their peers among the most recently appointed Constituent assembly charged with drafting a new constitution. Many secular delegates walked out again, accusing of a dominating Islamist agenda, reminiscent of the strife that led to the failed first attempt in drafting a new Constitution.
And Shafiq is not the only one awaiting judgments on constitutionality; the Parliament, dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party, is awaiting a decision by the Supreme Court on whether or not to agree with the ruling of a lower court that found the Parliamentary elections were unconstitutional. The offense is based on political parties running directly against independent candidates; whatever the reasoning, if the Supreme Court agrees, then the Parliament would be dissolved and a new election process for Parliament would be scheduled.
The troubles with the Constituent Assembly and the potential dissolving of the Parliament are not good signs for the Muslim Brotherhood and their Freedom and Justice Party. They were clearly the most organized and prepared in the first round of elections while independents, secularists, and revolutionary candidates battled among themselves for a share of the votes. But now that the MB candidate and Shafiq have benefited from the vote splitting, the secularists and revolutionary candidates are talking, forming alliances, and are not likely to be swept away so easily if new elections were to be held.
This would be a large hurdle to repeatedly reported "Islamist agenda"; but the alternative may be a "Socialist agenda" as different revolutionary groups are spouting various social ideals of various extremes. These same groups have offered the demands to Morsy and the Freedom and Justice Party. Evaluating whether or not to accept the demands is the ultimate "catch-22": rejecting risks potential continued revolution, while accepting yields political direction to an outside group.
As for now, things are calm. For how long and how will that calm be maintained? We'll know in the next few days.
Continue to pray for Egypt.
and, as you do, continue to pray for Lebanon and Syria, too.
Protestors continue to gather in Tahrir Square awaiting the two legal challenge to Shafiq's candidacy. The Political Isolation Law is pending before the Egyptian Supreme Court on the ground of Constitutionality; the law stated that those former leaders of the Mubarak regime were to be forbidden from seeking political office in the future. If rejected, Shafiq will remain in the election, but the outcry will likely be quite demonstrative. If the law is upheld, Shafiq's supporters may not be as demonstrative because they know they are a minority compared to the Islamists and the revolutionary groups who will be cheering for what will be another perceived victory in the ongoing revolution.
Meanwhile, Morsy is still not exactly the "people's favorite" heading into the election. There have been demands made by secular and revolutionary candidates that will not agree to vote for him as the Muslim Brotherhood candidate, regardless of their hatred for Shafiq and the old regime, until he and the MB agree to their demands. Fearing low voter turn out and another potential revolutionary uprising, the MB has formed a special committee to examine the demands and their leaders are attempting to appeal to Egyptians to please vote. The MB has recently attempted to appeal to Copts to vote for Morsy instead of the old regime's candidate (Shafiq) and the history of sectarian division that the MB say Shafiq represents.
And Shafiq is not the only one awaiting judgments on constitutionality; the Parliament, dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party, is awaiting a decision by the Supreme Court on whether or not to agree with the ruling of a lower court that found the Parliamentary elections were unconstitutional. The offense is based on political parties running directly against independent candidates; whatever the reasoning, if the Supreme Court agrees, then the Parliament would be dissolved and a new election process for Parliament would be scheduled.
The troubles with the Constituent Assembly and the potential dissolving of the Parliament are not good signs for the Muslim Brotherhood and their Freedom and Justice Party. They were clearly the most organized and prepared in the first round of elections while independents, secularists, and revolutionary candidates battled among themselves for a share of the votes. But now that the MB candidate and Shafiq have benefited from the vote splitting, the secularists and revolutionary candidates are talking, forming alliances, and are not likely to be swept away so easily if new elections were to be held.
This would be a large hurdle to repeatedly reported "Islamist agenda"; but the alternative may be a "Socialist agenda" as different revolutionary groups are spouting various social ideals of various extremes. These same groups have offered the demands to Morsy and the Freedom and Justice Party. Evaluating whether or not to accept the demands is the ultimate "catch-22": rejecting risks potential continued revolution, while accepting yields political direction to an outside group.
As for now, things are calm. For how long and how will that calm be maintained? We'll know in the next few days.
Continue to pray for Egypt.
and, as you do, continue to pray for Lebanon and Syria, too.
No comments:
Post a Comment