Thursday, June 14, 2012

Shafiq vs. Morsy is ON; Parliament is OFF


That's the simplified summary of Egypt's high court in two highly controversial, but unappealable cases. 

First, the "political isolation law", rammed through Parliament some same by the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice party, was ruled unconstitutional.  The law was aimed at forbidding former Mubarak regime officials from seeking political office in the new democracy; some say it was aimed directly at keeping Shafiq from running for the Presidency.  Shafiq finished second in the first round of the balloting, propelling him to the runoff this weekend, but today's decision by the highest court in Egypt is a "victory" for his supporters.

However, the second and accompanying decision by the court fed the revolutionary "conspiracy theorists" who believe the courts are now in the hands of Mubarak-era-sympathizers who are pro-military rule.  The second ruling overturned the election results of the Parliament, who have been in session for 4 months; this less than a week after the judicial system gave Mubarak a life sentence rather than the death penalty for his role in the nearly 850 killed during last year's revolution.   These two decisions, according to the "conspiracy theorists", demonstrate that Mubarak is still very much in control, or at least his military officers are in control.

This is not necessarily a good ruling for Shafiq; had he been allowed to run and Parliament remained in tact, then perhaps the people would just take their arguments to the polls and allow the votes to decide.  But now, people are in an uproar saying that even the once admired judicial system may also be compromised.  The election begins in 2 days and the crowds have gathered and are already talking about a "second revolution."

This is definitely not good for the Muslim Brotherhood and their Freedom and Justice Party.  Morsy, particularly on the strength of international absentee ballots that have already been counted, is clearly the frontrunner for this Presidential election; but the MB have not won over support since their sweeping Parliamentary victories 4 months ago--in fact, they've lost favor as they also attempted to win the Presidency even after they said they would not pursue that office.  A Morsy win for the Presidency with an unhappy populace and a second waive of Parliament elections will likely predispose the populace to be less favorable of giving the MB complete control of the country through the Presidency and the Parliament.  In the time that MB has lost favor politically, the young revolutionary socialists have organized and rival candidates have begun to work together; they will not be so easily swept out of the elections in a new round of voting.

With the decision against Parliament's election process, the military (SCAF=Supreme Council of the Armed Forces) seized legislative power.  This effectively not only dissolves the Parliament, but also dissolves the second and newly appointed Constituent Assembly charged with drafting the new Constitution.  The new Constituent Assembly had already been experiencing discord and accusation of an Islamist agenda leading to walkouts and protests by appointed members--same song, second verse for the draft of the Constitution.  But now, with military control, that assembly is also out and the SCAF will be announcing their 100 person Constituent Assembly as early as Friday.

This has led to additional cries of "foul" by the protestors; some have said the the military has probably already written a constitution and will just use this group to have it approved prior to the election of a new Parliament and the installation of a new President.  This, again according to the "conspiracy theorists", is nothing short of a military coup.  Based on the crowds and the chants in Tahrir and other population centers, there are a growing number of "conspiracy theorists" these days in Egypt.

What is not growing are the number of tourists and the economy.  A CNN.com video showed the crowds gathering in Tahrir while shop keeps and vendors attempted to stay busy a couple streets north on 26 July Street -- this busy, Broadway-like strip is home to several stores and business who have all been hit hard in these post-revolution times.

A new day in Egypt is off to a rocky start, and we haven't even had the election yet.  Pray for Egypt this weekend, and we'll keep you posted on the demonstrations and election news.

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