Sunday, June 24, 2012

Morsy's Palm Sunday?


We sat through an hour long, defensive presentation by the chair of the Presidential Election Commission while simultaneously watching a scenes from a subdued and anxious Tahrir Square.  The first to react to the eventual calculations of the presentation were not those in the Square, but the "impartial" journalists gathered in the assembly hall to hear the report first hand.   The journalists had to be brought back to order so that the report could be completed officially--by that time, the streets were filled with thunderous cheers, fireworks, and even a few gunshots.

The revolution that toppled Mubarak 500 days ago sees a "non-remnant" elected to the Presidency.

Celebration fills the streets, horns were honking and people cheering even here in our neighborhood--i just heard the third and fourth gunshots in our neighborhood fired into the air.

For the moment, this is better than the feared alternative; churches in the area, including the Cairo Christian Fellowship, cancelled services tonight in fear that the crowds that turned to celebration may have turned to rioting and violence.  Of course, getting into and out of the now party atmosphere that surrounds Tahrir Square could be just as chaotic, so the cautious cancellations may have been prudent.

The Presidential Election Commission began their report on quite a defensive tone--it made us a little apprehensive, wondering if they were setting the public up for an unpopular decision.  The PEC chair read through various reported violations and their findings, including whole ballot boxes nullified as they contained more ballots than signatures at the poll's location.  There were also reports of pre-marked ballots in several locations that had various results, as well as even reported violations of groups of Christians barred from their polling place--this latter case had not merit according to the PEC.  When all was said and done, Morsy and Shafiq each lost and gained votes, but the final tally was approximately 13+ million to 12+ million in favor of Morsy.

This victory is a win for the Muslim Brotherhood, after several legal losses this past half year and throughout their embattled history.  Once again, their organization and mobilization of the democratic process was ahead of any other group in Egypt; however, many political organizations have learned a lot from this process and the MB's example.  Any future victory by the MB will not come as easily.

And this was not easy.

Yes, Morsy secured the majority of these votes--but that "majority" needs a big, bold asterisk.  In comparison to eligible voters, they claimed 26% of the votes -- 74% of eligible voters in Egypt either voted for someone else or could not be motivated/persuaded to vote for the MB, American educated, "spare tire" candidate.

The celebrations today turn to work quickly tomorrow as Morsy will have to try to regain power from the SCAF who have limited Presidential power in the absence of a Constitution and a Parliament.  There will be an even greater amount of work required in appeasing the socialist and revolutionary groups who supported this victory rather than see the "remnant" elected--the concessions that may or may have not been made officially will now have to be actualized or risk these revolutionary groups to begin gathering in Tahrir against the newly elected President.  The crowds that have been impatient for the election results have been impatient for change for longer--millions are still living in severe poverty, economic conditions are well past declining, tourism is non-existent, and the world watches with skepticism at this budding-democracy.

It's much like Palm Sunday in that sense--the cheering, chanting crowds today may be crying out "crucify" within weeks.

The election's over, but the politicking is just beginning.

Continue to pray for Egypt...

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